NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY

CWA # 910
NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts

NIAS Africa Team
10 February 2023
Photo Source: United Nations

Africa Weekly #49 & 50, Vol. 2, No. 6 & 7

7 February 2023

IN FOCUS

Africa: Domestic instability, bilateral conflicts, and insurgencies ahead

Instabilities in Africa seem to be expanding in its intensity and geographic reach. Humanitarian crises, migration and displacement will be immense this year. New non-traditional factors like climate change, food insecurity and migration will be significant perpetrators of conflicts.

by Anu Maria Joseph

While internal ethnic and political divides are drivers of conflict in North Africa and the Horn of Africa region, Islamist insurgencies, armed rebellion and bandit attacks are major actors in the Sahel region. Instabilities in Africa seem to be expanding in its intensity and geographic reach. Humanitarian crises, migration and displacement will be immense this year. New non-traditional factors like climate change, food insecurity and migration will be significant perpetrators of conflicts.

Internal instabilities: Tunisia, Ethiopia and Sudan

First, Tunisia’s political crisis. Since 2021, Tunisia continues to be in a political crisis, after Kais Saeid sacking the government, freezing the parliament and instituting a new constitution. President Saeid has now taken control over the three pillars of democracy- the executive, judiciary and legislature. According to Statista, in 2022, the country recorded an unemployment rate above 15 per cent. The World Bank says Tunisia is under debt of 80 per cent of its GDP, seeking IMF bailouts. Protests are ramping up against the economic crisis and Saeid’s authoritarian drift. The protests are inclusive, represented by Ennahda Islamist opposition party, pro-democratic movements, civil societies and trade unions. Slogans reminiscent of the 2011 Arab Spring uprising are flaming. Considering its inclusivity and reach, the protests have the capacity to develop into another uprising taking up the Arab Spring legacies. 

Second, Ethiopia’s internal conflicts. The ceasefire agreement signed between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF in November 2022 was a great development ending a two year conflict. The new developments including restoring services, partial disarmament of TPLF and withdrawal of Eritrean troops were significant progress in terms of implementation of the ceasefire. However, a complete integration of Tigray with Ethiopia will be a complex process considering the humanitarian cost the conflict has caused. On the other hand, the peace deal has increased trust in the African Union and its ability to realise the idea of “African solutions to African problems”. 

However, the increasing violence by the Oromo Liberation Front (OLA) in Amhara and Oromia region raises a threat of an emergence of a new similar conflict in the country.

Third, political deadlock in Sudan. In October 2022, Sudan marked the one-year anniversary of the military coup. Since the coup, widespread protests have been going on demanding a civilian transition. In December 2022, Sudan’s pro-democracy coalition Forces of Freedom and Change signed a new deal with the military government agreeing for a two-year civilian-led transition towards elections. Though this was a major development, the deal seems too vague and opponents claim that it does not cover any security reforms that would leave the militarily powerful and disrupt a democratic transition. Though the UN initiated a second phase of negotiations between the military and the civilian groups, the military's contest for state power and a divided civilian coalition says the political crisis in Sudan would keep lingering. 

Bilateral Conflicts: DRC-Rwanda

The resurfacing of the M23 rebels since November 2021 has soured DRC-Rwanda relations. The group continues to attack the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) in North Kivu and capture border areas between DRC, Rwanda and Uganda. The blame game between DRC and Rwanda over supporting the rebels continues. The involvement of the East African Community and deployment of its troops after DRC joining the bloc in April 2022 was significant, as by July, both the countries agreed for a de-escalation. The ceasefire agreement signed by DRC, Rwanda, Angola, Burundi and former Kenyan  President Uhuru Kenyatta calling on the M23 withdraw from all its bases and disarming and surrendering to FARDC was a major development which was expected to end the rivalry between the countries. However, M23 announcing a non-compliance to the agreement turned the table. By January, Rwanda-DRC tensions resurfaced with a new wave of M23 attacks followed by accusations and counter accusations. 

The Rwandan government accuses DRC of wanting to perpetuate “conflict and insecurity” and failing to commit to the peace agreement. Similarly, DRC accuses Rwanda and M23 rebels of “once more failing to uphold the commitments” of the agreement. As M23 advances and the fighting re-erupts along with regular incidents of DRC fighter jets violating Rwandan airspace, it threatens that the clashes could erupt into a full scale bilateral conflict in the coming months. 

Insurgencies

First, Al-Shabab in Somalia. In August 2022, President Hassan Sheik Mohumud announced an “all out war” against al-Shabab militancy in the country. The campaign was successful to an extent in terms of re-capturing al-Shabab bases. However, beyond the campaign, al Shabab continues to carry out deadly attacks. However, with continued significant international assistance and the government's plan for the second phase of the campaign against al Shabab, the militancy in the country would see a significant positive turn. 

Second, Sahel. Islamist militancy, armed separatism and the rise of bandits. On 16 January, 50 women were abducted by Boko Haram Islamist insurgent group in Burkina Faso. Though the victims were released, the first mass kidnap in the country has raised a new concern that it would bring a new tactic by the Islamist extremists in 2023. With the two coups in 2020 and 2021, Mali grapples with Islamic State, and al-Qaeda linked militants fighting one another along with non-jihadist rebels. African Center for Strategic Studies says there were 2,800 incidents of insurgent attacks in Sahel in 2022 which is double that of past year.

The end of the Operation Barkhane and shattered France-Mali and France-Burkina Faso relations amid Russian involvement further deteriorated relations with western partners. It would mean that Islamist insurgency in the region would gain momentum taking advantage of the security vacuum, further increasing the threat of the spread of violence to the Gulf of Guinea and neighbouring countries. 

The gunmen attacks and abductions, and armed separatist rebellion in south-east Nigeria has usurped the powers of government officials in the country. With the failure of the government to address the insecurity, the violence seems to have no end in sight. 

Besides the insurgency, there are frequent incidents of farmer-herder conflicts across the Sahel countries which militant Islamist groups often exploit. 

Followed by a series of coups and attempted coups and challenged by deep-rooted and fragmented insurgencies, Sahel is in a bad shape. 

Non-Traditional conflict threats

The Horn of Africa is facing the worst drought in over 40 years, with consecutive failure in rainy seasons. Nearly 20 million people in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia go through severe droughts and devastating consequences. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly 7.1 million people in Somalia face acute food insecurity and three million are internally displaced. Meanwhile, the WFP report says in 2022, nearly 19 countries in West Africa went through above-average rainfall. According to the UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs, 1.2 million people in 16 countries in the region were affected by floods. When Africa goes through two climate extremes in two regions. 

Along with political instabilities, climate-induced conflicts will equally escalate resource conflicts, food insecurity, humanitarian crisis, displacement and migration across the continent. 

Africa: Despite the elections, democratic backslide will continue 

by Apoorva Sudhakar

Amid the ongoing sweeping political changes in Africa, the continent has 24 elections scheduled for 2023. These elections, some unlikely to take place, will highlight the state of democracy or its lack thereof in Africa. 

Africa’s political landscape in 2022: A recap

In 2022, Africa’s landscape was a mix of strengthening political processes in some regions while other regions witnessed a backsliding of the same. In the Horn of Africa, Kenya’s elections witnessed a breakaway from its violent electoral past; in Sudan, the military government and civilian leaders signed an agreement to end a political crisis linked to the October 2021 coup; Somalia, through its indirect voting system, witnessed a change of a government when Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took charge as president, after presidential elections were delayed for 15 months. 

However, fair political processes and democracy took a backseat in North Africa’s Tunisia, Libya, and Chad. In Tunisia, President Kais Saied consolidated his power by rewriting the constitution and a gradual power grab over institutions including the judiciary. In Libya, a lack of consensus between two rival governing authorities over the presidential and parliamentary elections fuelled the political stalemate. In Chad, the military government extended the transition period for two years until 2024. West Africa observed similar trends wherein Burkina Faso witnessed a coup in January 2022 and another one in September 2022. In Guinea Bissau and The Gambia, the governments foiled coup attempts in February and December, respectively. In Nigeria, as election campaigns kicked off, the number of attacks on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) facilities increased. 

With these ongoing changes and 24 elections scheduled across the continent - presidential, parliamentary or local - 2023 is going to be a year of elections for Africa. The continent, with its recent record of coups and attempted coups since 2020 has experienced the weakness of democracies in some regions, whereas in other regions of Africa, an increased clampdown on dissent and opposition has characterised the political situation. Amidst this, the major elections to watch in 2023 include presidential elections in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe, and parliamentary elections in Libya, Sierra Leone and Mali. 

Election trends to watch in 2023

First, major presidential elections take the limelight. Africa will witness presidential elections in countries which have been undergoing problems like armed violence and insecurity, corruption and inflation, namely Nigeria, DRC, and Zimbabwe. In Nigeria, one among Africa’s richest economies, months leading to the polls in February, have witnessed attacks against electoral commission offices and an increased number of kidnappings and armed violence against civilians. The election commission warned that continuing attacks may lead to postponement of polls, but later clarified that polls would be held as scheduled. In DRC, the debate around insecurity in the east, anti-Rwanda rhetoric, and the fallout of President Tshisekedi from his predecessor will shape the elections. Similarly, in Libya which has presidential polls and parliamentary polls scheduled, the differences between the two parallel governments, lack of consensus on polling structure may lead to another postponement of the polls which have been delayed since 2021. 

Second, the unlikely elections or change in countries under military rule. The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA) outlines that Sudan will be holding its presidential, national assembly and local elections in 2023; Mali will have its local, House of Representative and Senate elections; Guinea will have its local elections. As these countries, which have been under military rule since coups took precedence in West Africa, have elections scheduled for 2023, the debate around the state of democracy in Africa is likely to continue. The question arises whether countries will live up to the military governments’ promise of transition to civilian rule through elections. Given the history of military rule in Africa, it is unlikely that elections will be held in a free and fair manner. Therefore, the scheduled elections in these countries are likely to get postponed, cancelled, or marred by political violence. 

Third, volatility in electoral campaigns and results. Among the countries holding elections, Zimbabwe is reeling from the impact of replacing long-time dictator Robert Mugabe in 2017, wherein his successor President Emmerson Mnangagwa has increased restrictions on opposition groups; Mnangagwa belongs to the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) which has been in power since Zimbabwe’s independence 1980 and is known for its contribution to political violence. Meanwhile, election results disputed by opposition parties in most African countries have previously led to violence. Despite Kenya’s successful breakaway from its violent electoral past in 2022, peaceful democratic transitions in 2023 seem unlikely given the highly charged political landscape in major countries. 

Fourth, setting the stage for 2024. Africa has major elections scheduled for 2024 in South Africa, Chad, Mali. The developments in 2023, whether South Africa's ANC will address its internal divide, whether Mali will hold its Senate and House of Representative elections, or whether Chad's military government will pave the way for a smooth civilian transition will set the stage for 2024. The developments in these countries in the last few years have only indicated a deteriorating political scenario. 

The uncertainties are likely to continue in 2023 and therefore, place 2024 as an equally charged year of elections.

(Note: The commentaries were previous;y published in The World This Week.)

AFRICA IN BRIEF

25 January - 7 February

Apoorva Sudhakar and Anu Maria Joseph 

TUNISIA

Lowest voter turnout recorded for second round of parliamentary elections

On 30 January, the electoral board said only 11.4 per cent registered voters participated in the second round of parliamentary elections on 29 January. This was the lowest voter turnout since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Of the 11.4 per cent turnout, 67.6 per cent votes were cast by men. (“Tunisia records low turnout in second vote for defanged parliament,” France24, 30 January 2023)

LIBYA

Gas deal with Italy faces opposition from Tripoli minister

On 30 January, BBC reported that several leaders in Libya had rejected a USD eight billion gas deal signed by Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) and Italy's state-run energy firm ENI. Libya's oil and gas minister said the deal to develop and explore two Libyan offshore gas fields "lacks equality between the Libyan and Italian sides." The minister termed the deal "illegal," claiming the NOC had bypassed the oil and gas ministry and had also raised the Italian side's shares to 37 per cent from 30 per cent. However, the NOC chairman maintained that the NOC "works according to the law, and whoever sees this procedure as illegal must go before the court." (“Libya's gas deal with Italy prompts backlash,” BBC, 30 January 2023)

SUDAN

Israeli Foreign Minister’s visit, announcement of signing peace deal

On 3 February, Israel Foreign Minister Eli Cohen during his one-day visit to Sudan, announced that Israel and Sudan will sign a “historic peace agreement,” in a few months. Sudan agreed to revive ties with Israel two years before, however this has never been implemented. Subsequently, Sudan would become the latest Arab League country to normalise ties with Israel. Additionally, Sudan’s foreign ministry said that Cohen and Sudan’s military leader Abdal Fattah al Burhan “discussed means for establishing fruitful relations with Israel” and strengthen cooperation in “agricultural, energy, health, water, educational fields with special emphasis on security and military fields.” (“Israel says Sudan peace deal to be signed,” BBC, 8 January 2023)

SOUTH SUDAN

The Pope’s visit

On 3 February, Pope Francis arrived in Juba, South Sudan’s capital which will be his second African country to visit after the Democratic Republic Congo this week. The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby and the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church of Scotland Ian Greenshields have joined with the pope for the visit. Meanwhile, a Catholic archbishop raised concerns on the death of at least 21 people during an attack on a cattle camp in Kajo-Keji County on eve of Pope’s visit. (“Top clergy decry South Sudan killings on eve of Pope's visit,” BBC, 3 February 2023, “Pope Francis lands in South Sudan,” BBC, 3 February 2023)

ETHIOPIA 

PM Abiy Ahmed meets Tigray authorities

On 3 February, BBC reported that Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Tigrayan leaders for the first time since the peace deal was signed in November 2022. They discussed the progress of the implementation of the peace deal as well as the issues that need further attention. (“Abiy meets Tigray leaders for first time since peace deal,” BBC, 3 February 2022)

Millions cast vote in referendum for new region

On 6 February, Ethiopia held a referendum to establish a new regional state. More than three million people are registered to vote for the referendum. This is the third such referendum held in a span of four years. If the referendum gets a yes vote, the new region is to be called Southern Ethiopia region. (“Millions vote in Ethiopia referendum for new region,” BBC, 6 February 2023)

Tigray authorities says Eritrean troops still remain in the region

On 7 February, the authorities of Ethiopia's Tigray region said that despite the reports of withdrawal, Eritrean troops continue to remain as small units in the region. Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) spokesperson Getachew Reda said: "Although there were occasions when they [Eritrean troops] withdrew in an organised manner, there are instances of in and out of small units, and this should be addressed fully." (“Eritrean troops still in northern Ethiopia - TPLF,” BBC, 7 February 2023)

SOMALIA

Senior IS militant killed by US special forces

On 27 January, the US said that its special forces killed senior Islamic State militant Bilal al-Sudani in Somalia along with his ten associates; al-Sudani was a key figure in the funding and expansion of the group across Africa. The US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin described the development as “a successful counterterrorism operation.” Prior to joining the IS, al-Sudani worked for al-Shabab, and later split from the group to form an IS-affiliated group. (“US raid in Somalia kills top Islamic State leader,” BBC, 27 January 2023)

East African leaders meets to discuss operations against  al-Shabab

On 31 January, BBC reported that security chiefs from east Africa are meeting in Mogadishu to discuss joint military operations against the al-Shabab militant group. The meeting comes following the significant gains by Somali forces along with the US, African troops and local militia against the group. On 30 January, the Somali government said that it killed more than 130 al-Shabab militants including top commanders. The summit of the regional leaders is also expected to discuss the phased withdrawal of the African Union troops in Somalia since 2007. (“East African top brass to discuss al-Shabab plan,” BBC, 31 January 2023)

GHANA

Eight people allegedly killed by military; high command dismisses claims

On 1 February, BBC quoted eyewitnesses who said eight people, including a 12-year-old boy, had been killed after armed men in military shot at civilians in Bawku town in the north along the Burkina Faso border; the boy was reportedly burnt to death. The MP for Bawku Central accused the military of carrying out the attack and demanded an immediate investigation. However, the military high command had previously issued a statement warning people from wearing military uniforms. (Thomas Naadi, “Ghana military denies role in civilian deaths in the north,” BBC, 2 February 2023)

ZIMBABWE

26 opposition party members released 

On 27 January, 26 Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) members were granted bail after they had been arrested for allegedly holding an unlawful gathering. The CCC is an opposition party; a CCC spokesperson said: “This confirms that the arrest was an abuse of process in the first place.” Previously, on 14 January, police used tear gas at a CCC gathering in Harare; prosecutors held that the members had not received permission for a meeting. (“Zimbabwe court grants bail to 26 opposition party members,” News24, 27 January 2023)

Lukashenko concludes visit to Zimbabwe

On 1 February, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko concluded a three-day visit to Zimbabwe. Lukashenko told the media: “We are not using colonial style. We are not here to do that. We plan to expand our ties with Africa because the world cannot develop without Africa and the world belongs to Africa.” Lukashenko and Zimbabwean Emmerson Mnangagwa signed eight agreements; meanwhile, Lukashenk defended his visit at a time when Mnangagwa is seeking a readmission to the Commonwealth, terming Zimbabwe “a friend to all and an enemy to none.” (Lenin Ndebele, “We plan to expand our ties with Africa, says Belarus strongman Lukashenko,” News24, 1 February 2023)

ESWATINI

Political tensions on the rise, says SADC

On 31 January, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) said political tensions over the killing of Thulani Maseko on 21 January were increasing in Eswatini. The murder took place hours after King Mswati III warned activists against defying him and of “mercenaries killing them.” The Namibian President Hage Geingob, who is also the chair of SADC, said sporadic instances of violence indicate “an escalation of the tensions.” (“Tensions brewing in Eswatini after the killing of activist Thulani Maseko, SADC says,” News24, 31 January 2023)

MADAGASCAR

Tropical storm claims 16 lives

On 26 January, the Office for Risk and Disaster Management said at least 16 people had been killed and 17 were missing after tropical storm Cheneso made a landfall on 19 January. Of the casualties, three died in the storm and 13 in the heavy rains that followed. On 26 January, the European Commission's Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations said that so far, 60,000 people have been displaced and 13,000 homes damaged.  (“Tropical Storm Cheneso, ensuing rain kill 16 in Madagascar,” News24, 27 January 2023)

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

HRW warns escalation of tensions between Tutsi-Hutu communities

On 6 February, the Human Rights Watch warned of the escalation of tensions between the Tutsi and Hutu ethnic communities in eastern DR Congo. The escalation of violence comes as a result of increased fighting involving the M23 rebels in the region. The M23 armed rebel group is accused of carrying out summary executions and forced recruitment of civilians and Rwanda is accused of backing the group. This comes alongside the death of a UN peacekeeper from South Africa in an attack on a helicopter. The UN responded to the attack saying: “Monusco strongly condemns this cowardly attack against an aircraft bearing the United Nations emblem.” (“Rwanda-backed rebels stirring ethnic divisions - HRW”, BBC, 6 February 2023, “Peacekeeper killed in attack on UN helicopter in DR Congo,” BBC, 6 February 2023)

At least eight killed in protests against peacekeeping forces

On 7 February, hundreds of people protested against the UN and the East African Regional Force accusing them of failing to support the Congolese force’s operations against the M23 rebels. On 8 February, BBC reported that at least eight people were killed during violent clashes between the protesters and the peacekeeping forces. The military governor of the North Kivu province said that the peacekeepers fired in self-defence when the protesters attacked a convoy. (“Deadly protests against regional force in DR Congo,” BBC, 7 February 2023) 

MALI

Rights experts urge independent probe into Wagner Group operations

On 31 January, independent rights experts appointed by the UN and the UN Working Group on Mercenaries called on Mali to begin an immediate probe into the mass killings in Moura village in 2022. The UN News quoted the experts: “We are particularly worried by credible reports that over the course of several days in late March 2022, Malian armed forces accompanied by military personnel believed to belong to the Wagner Group, executed several hundred people, who had been rounded up in Moura, a village in central Mali.” The experts said they had also received reports of the Wagner Group’s human rights and sexual abuses in the Central African Republic; they said they were apprehensive of the “increased outsourcing of traditional military functions” to the Wagner Group. (“Mali: Independent rights experts call for probe into Wagner Group’s alleged crimes,” UN News, 31 January 2023)

Military government expels UN mission’s human rights chief

On 6 February, Mali’s military government expelled the UN peacekeeping mission’s human rights chief. The move comes after the government accused the human rights chief of commiting “subversive actions” in his selection of witnesses to testify at the UN Security Council briefings on Mali. Meanwhile, Mali’s foreign ministry said that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit the country on 7 February which will be his second visit to Africa in two weeks. The Yerewolo movement, which promotes closer ties with Russia, welcomed Lavrov’s visit and called for the installation on a Russian military base in Gao region. (“Mali junta expels UN mission's human rights chief,” BBC, 6 February 2023)

BURKINA FASO

France recalls ambassador from burkina Faso

On 26 January, France announced the recalling of its ambassador to Burkina Faso, two days after Paris agreed to comply with Ouadougou’s request to withdraw all French forces from the country within a month. The French Foreign Ministry said it was recalling the ambassador “for consultations on the state and perspectives of our bilateral relations.” (“France recalls ambassador from Burkina Faso after agreeing to withdraw troops,” France24, 26 January 2023)

NIGERIA

At least eight killed by gunmen in central Nigeria

On 1 February, the Benue state police spokesperson said eight people, including a divisional police chief, had been killed by gunmen in Naka town in central Nigeria. The divisional police chief was leading an officers’ team against the armed group in a gunfight. The development took place after the police received a distress call when gunmen blocked the Markurdi-Naka road and forced travellers along the road to flee. (“Gunmen kill police chief, seven others in central Nigeria,” Al Jazeera, 2 February 2023)

15 pilgrims killed in gunmen attack

On 7 February, at least 15 Nigerian Muslim pilgrims were killed in an attack by unidentified gunmen. Following the incident, the Nigerian presidential spokesperson said: “The Nigerian foreign affairs ministry, through the Nigerian embassy in Burkina Faso, is engaging with the Burkinable authorities and awaits the outcome of their investigation of the unfortunate incident, and if necessary, to ensure that all culprits are appropriately sanctioned.” President Muhammadu Buhari shared condolences to the deceased and added that the government would make “every effort” to return the survivors back home as well as the bodies of those killed. (“Nigeria pilgrims killed in Burkina Faso bus attack,” BBC, 7 February 2023) 

MOROCCO

Spanish PM visits Rabat marking new turn in relations

On 2 February, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez arrived in Rabat and met Morocco's Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch amid thawing relations between the two countries. France24 quoted Sanchez: "We are going to avoid anything that may offend the other, especially with regard to our respective spheres of sovereignty." Sanchez's visit is the first high-level visit since 2015; Sanchez emphasised the "enormous unexplored potential" of Spain-Morocco relations and said the meeting indicates a consolidation of a new stage in bilateral ties. On the same day, at least 20 deals were signed on investments, energy and education. (“In Morocco, Spain PM reinforces ties after crisis,” France24, 2 February 2023)

REGIONAL

Despite improvement in governance, democratic backsliding a concern, says Mo Ibrahim index

On 25 January, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation released its Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) 2022 edition. The IIAG highlighted that amid “widespread democratic backsliding,” Africa’s progress on human and economic development had also slowed. The IIAG maintained that though Africa had witnessed a “marginal improvement” in good governance since 2012, the trend had become a “flatline” since 2019. Further, the IIAG said: “Governments have been increasingly prone to infringe on rights, curb freedom of expression and association, and impose restrictions on civic space.” Nevertheless, more than 90 per cent of Africans live in countries where  health, education, social protection and other criteria are better than 2012. (“Democracy ‘backsliding’ has slowed Africa’s development: study,” Al Jazeera, 26 January 2023)

UNODC report highlights alarming deaths from fake medicines

On 1 February, UN News reported on the latest Trafficking in Medical Products in the Sahel report released by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The report highlighted that in Sub-Saharan Africa, at least 267,000 deaths per year were caused by “falsified and substandard antimalarial medicines” and 169,271 deaths by “falsified and substandard antibiotics.” In West Africa, over 605 tonnes of medical products were seized between January 2017 and December 2021, and diverted from the legal supply chain. The report holds that several “pharmaceutical company employees, public officials, law enforcement officers, health agency workers and street vendors” are involved in trafficking. (“Fake medicines kill almost 500,000 sub-Saharan Africans a year: UNODC report,” UN News, 1 February 2023)

About the authors

Apoorva Sudhakar is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.


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Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan