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NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
IN FOCUS | Chad's political crisis
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NIAS Africa Team
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Africa Weekly #36, Vol. 1, No. 36
1 November 2022
IN FOCUS
Explained: Background, Issues and Actors in Chad’s political crisis
The recent events in Chad indicate that despite the military leaders promising a democratic transition, their actions speak otherwise when it comes to ending the transition periods, thereby challenging the fragile peace and stability in the region.
By Anu Maria Joseph
On 21 October, dozens of people were killed in Chad as security forces repressed anti-government protests in the capital city, N'djamena, and Moundou. The protests were carried out against the junta’s decision to postpone the country’s transition to civilian rule and extend its term in power for at least two years. Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo said that at least 50 people were killed and 300 wounded during the clashes, adding that security forces responded “only in self-defence” when armed protesters were seeking “to seize power by force.” However, the opposition said that the death toll was closer to 70, and with hundreds wounded, the toll was expected to rise. A state of emergency was declared in N'djamena, Moundou and Koumra, allowing the respective regional governors to “take all necessary measures in compliance with the law” to contain the protests.
The Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat “strongly” condemned the incident. He said: “I call on the parties to respect human lives and property and to favour peaceful ways to overcome the crisis.” The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association said: “Any use of excessive force against demonstrators exposes their perpetrators to prosecution in accordance with international standards.” The US expressed concern over the number of casualties and the State Department said: “We also condemn the attack that occurred outside the main gate of the US Embassy in which assailants in civilian clothes and private vehicles cleared police checkpoints and killed four individuals.”
Chad’s political crisis: A brief background
President Idriss Deby came to power through a coup in 1991. Corruption, political exclusion, inequalities and repression of dissent have long been trademarks of Deby’s rule in Chad. Periodic violence left the country in instability for decades. After Deby’s death, the military appointed his son Mahamat Deby as interim president. The transitional government dissolved the National Assembly and the constitution after the regime loyalists acceded to the constitution’s succession plan. The Transitional Military Council (CMT) had promised a civilian rule after an 18-month transition, adding that Deby will not take part in the election.
However, on 1 October, during the National Dialogue, the transitional period was extended to two years. It also declared Deby “transitional president” adding he could be a candidate in the upcoming election. On 10 October Deby was sworn in and later appointed opposition leader Saleh Kebzabo as prime minister.
A crucial part of the transition was the promise of an inclusive National Dialogue to form a consensus on constitutional reform and election plans. However, the dialogue was delayed till August, two months before the scheduled end of the transition. The absence of several major political players and several rebel groups questioned the inclusivity of the dialogue and its ability for a democratic transition. Further, a body, mandated to direct the debates and agenda was not appointed by consensus. Most committee leaderships had a close relationship with the old system and regime.
Major actors
The Transitional Military Council headed by Mahamat Deby appears to sustain a regime similar to Idriss Deby’s authoritarian rule.
Since 2016, Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), a Libyan based rebel group, had been carrying out a persistent armed rebellion against Deby’s autocratic regime and the group was responsible for the death of Idriss Deby. The FACT rebels are allegedly being supported by multiple rebel groups and opposition parties.
Chad’s porous borders are a threshold for Islamist insurgent groups based in central Sahel, including Boko Haram, Jama’at Nsr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and other Islamic State of Greater Shara, which could escalate the instability.
Wakit Tama, a coalition of civil society organisations has been continuously protesting against CMT’s narrow governance and demanding a more inclusive national dialogue. Similarly, a major opposition party Les Transformatives, which is targeted by the security forces, called out the stacking of Deby’s loyalists and rallied for reforming the transition process.
France considers Chad to be a key ally. French officials called late Deby a “courageous friend”. Though France has been encouraging an immediate transition towards a civilian government, it seems to be supporting Deby’s son in the interim with an objective to avoid destabilising a critical ally in the fight against extremism.
Major issues
First, persisting political uncertainty. Since the military takeover, Chad remains plagued by political uncertainties. The opposition and civil society groups have been carrying out regular protests demanding a return to civilian rule. The security forces often engage in political violence to contain the protests. The recurrent attempted coups and coups along with extension of the transition have brought in another period of uncertainty with higher risks of further social and political turbulence.
Second, escalating security issues. Besides the internal disturbances, the Lake Chad basin, which stretches along Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, has been a region where jihadist groups Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa (Iswap) have established their hideouts. According to the UN, more than 36,000 people have been killed and three million have been forced to flee their homes amid the escalating insurgency in the region.
Third, poor economic and social performance. Chad is one among the world’s least developed countries where according to a World Bank report, 45 per cent of the population lives in poverty followed by chronic malnutrition and food insecurity. According to UNDP’s Human Development Index 2022, Chad ranks second lowest with 0.394 HDI value. Poor economic and social performance is largely contributed by fragile institutions and its divisive reforms. Besides, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation, climate change has led to 90 per cent shrinking of Lake Chad which has led to lower fisheries production, land and biodiversity degradation, lower agricultural output and impacts on livestock management.
Regional fallouts
Military takeovers, extension of the transition period and repression by security forces are increasingly common in West and Central Africa. Mali experienced two coups in 2020 and 2021 and the junta further extended the transitional period. In May, the coup leader of Guinea announced a transition period of three years. Burkina Faso experienced two coups in eight months this year. Further, the military governments in the respective counties use the security forces to repress the pro-democratic protests which are claiming more lives. Along with Chad, other West and Central African countries which are under a military transition period share a similar trajectory. Despite the military leaders promising a democratic transition, their actions speak otherwise when it comes to ending the transition periods, thereby challenging the fragile peace and stability in the region.
Note: Parts of this commentary was previously published in Conflict Weekly.
AFRICA IN BRIEF
26 October - 1 November
By Apoorva Sudhakar and Anu Maria Joseph
ALGERIA
Arab League commences amid uncertainties regarding Palestine
On 1 November, Algeria commenced the first Arab League, the first since several Arab countries normalised ties with Israel in 2020. The last Arab League was held in 2019. Algeria is a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause and had also mediated a reconciliation process between the Fatah and Hamas factions. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for unity among the Arab countries and said: “Division opens the door to foreign, non-Arab, interference, to terrorism, to manipulation, and sectarian strife. But united, your leadership can shape a region that makes the most of its enormous potential and contributes to global peace and security.” Guterres also stressed on the necessity to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative amid the war between Russia and Ukraine, and called on rich countries to lead the fight against climate change. (“In speech to Arab League, UN chief appeals for greater regional unity,” UN News, 1 November 2022)
SOMALIA
At least 100 killed in twin bomb attack
On 30 October, at least 100 people were killed and more than 300 were injured in twin car bomb explosions near Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. AFP news agency quoted the president saying, among the victims “who were massacred were mothers with their children in their arms.” He appealed for international medical aid for the injured civilians. The president blamed al Shabaab militant group for the attack which targeted the education ministry. A pro-al Shabaab Somali Memo website reported that the group has claimed responsibility for the attack. (“Somalia Mogadishu bombings: Twin blasts kill 100 in capital,” BBC, 30 October 2022)
ZAMBIA
World Bank approves USD 279 million loan
On 27 October, the World Bank said that it has approved a USD 270 million loan to Zambia to help it recover from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and to manage the debt crisis. In August, the International Monetary Fund had approved a USD 1.3 billion loan to help Zambia to restructure its loan as it failed to repay the same since 2020. In addition, the president of the World Bank has called on other countries to help reduce Zambia's debt. (“World Bank approves $275 million in development support for Zambia,” Africanews, 27 October 2022)
MALI
UN criticises military government’s partnership with Wagner
On 26 October, the US State Department's undersecretary for political affairs said Mali’s security situation had significantly worsened because of the military government’s choices, including its relations with Russia’s Wagner Group.The official said that the US ability to assist Mali in its security was limited “by the choice that the Mali government made to get into bed with Wagner.” The US official claimed that with the Mali government’s invitation to Wagner, terrorism had increased by 30 per cent and that there are “broad reports of human rights abuses across the region where (Wagner forces) are working.” The official added: “We worry that these forces are not interested in the safety and security of the people of Mali, but instead are interested in enriching themselves and strip-mining the country -- and are making the terrorism situation worse.” (“US blames Russia's Wagner Group for worsening security in Mali,” France24, 27 October 2022)
At least 13 killed in military raid
On 1 November, BBC reported, at least 13 people were killed during a raid by the Malian army and a group which locals identified as Russia’s Wagner mercenary group on 30 October. Residents said the army and mercenaries targeted ethnic Fulanis, where a woman and child were among those killed during the attack in Guelledje village in the Mopti region. (“Raid by Mali army and 'mercenaries' kills 13,” BBC, 1 November 2022)
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
Thousands protest against Rwanda’s alleged support to M23
On 31 October, thousands took to the streets of Goma to protest against Rwanda’s alleged support to M23 rebels following Kinshasa’s recalling of its interim acting ambassador in Kigali. Al Jazeera quoted a civil society representative from the protests: “We denounce the hypocrisy of the international community in the face of Rwanda’s aggression.” The development comes after M23 rebels took control of two towns along a highway leading to Goma. Previously, on 29 October, the Democratic Republic of the Congo ordered the Rwandan ambassador to Kinshasa to leave the country within 48 hours. (“Thousands join anti-Rwanda protests in DR Congo’s Goma,” Al Jazeera, 31 October 2022)
UN chief concerned over uptick in violence
On 31 October, a statement from the spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed concern over the surge in violence in the east between government troops and M23 rebels. Guterres called for immediate de-escalation of violence and ensured continued support to the mediation. He urged the M23 to disarm unconditionally and respect the DRC’s sovereignty. On 29 October, two UN peacekeepers were injured during attacks in North Kivu. The UN Mission in the DRC, known as the MONUSCO, condemned the attack and outlined that they may amount to war crimes. (“DR Congo: Guterres ‘deeply concerned’ by resurgence of fighting between Government troops and M23,” UN News, 31 October 2022)
At least 11 killed in stampede at Martyr’s stadium
On 29 October, 11 people, including two police personnel were killed in a stampede at the Martyr’s stadium in Kinshasa where people had gathered for Fally Ipupa’s concert. The interior minister said the stadium had gone past the 100 per cent capacity and blamed the organisers for the casualties. Reuters reported that several people forced their way into the VIP section after the 80,000 seats were filled. Prior to the incident, security forces allegedly dispersed the crowd outside the stadium using teargas. (“Stampede at Fally Ipupa concert kills 11 in DRC’s capital,” Al Jazeera, 30 October 2022)
NIGERIA
Police increase security amid terror attack warnings
On 28 October, the Nigerian police called on all “strategic police managers in charge of commands and tactical formations” to increase security, particularly in the Federal Capital Territory. The inspector general of police ordered the activation of all emergency numbers for “a 24/7 prompt response with combatant officers and men on standby.” The development came after the US, on the same day, asked family members of diplomats and non-emergency staff to leave from Abuja. (“Nigeria ups security as US orders diplomats’ families to leave,” Al Jazeera, 28 October 2022)
REGIONAL
DRC orders Rwanda envoy to leave within 48 hours
On 29 October,the Democratic Republic of the Congo directed Rwanda’s ambassador to leave the country within 48 hours, on Kigali’s alleged support to the M23 rebels in DRC’s east. The decision came after the defence council met to discuss the capture of two towns by the rebels. The government spokesperson cited “a massive arrival of elements of the Rwandan element to support the M23 terrorists.” On 30 October, Rwanda accused DRC of scapegoating Kigali “to cover up and distract from their own governance and security failures.” (“DR Congo expels Rwandan ambassador as M23 rebels seize towns,” Al Jazeera, 30 October 2022)
Thousands displaced by flooding in central and west Africa
On 28 October, the UNHCR said that 3.4 million people are in need of assistance amid the flooding in west and central Africa. Currently, the floods have claimed over 600 lives in Nigeria and left 1.3 million displaced. Similarly, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso also witnessed above-average rainfall leading to the death and displacement of hundreds. The UNHCR spokesperson outlined the impact of climate change in the region and across Africa stating that the temperature in Sahel was increasing 1.5 times faster than the global average. The spokesperson further said that extreme weather across Africa had “killed hundreds and forced millions to flee their homes.” (“Millions face flooding threat across west and central Africa,” UN News, 28 October 2022)
UN Security Council voted for the resumption of peace negotiations in Western Sahara
On 28 October, the UN Security Council voted for the resumption of negotiations between parties to the disputed Western Sahara. The resolution called on the parties to resume negotiations "in good faith with a view to achieving a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution." Thirteen countries in the 15-member council voted in favour of the resolution, while Kenya and Russia abstained. Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, is disputed by Morocco and the Algerian backed Polisario Front. (“UN votes for Western Sahara talks to resume,” BBC, 28 October 2022)
About the authors
Apoorva Sudhakar is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
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Nithyashree RB
Coup in Gabon: Three questions
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #78 | Coup in Gabon
Sneha Surendran
Wildfires in Europe: Another year of devastation
Rishika Yadav
Floods in Europe: Impacts, and issues
Padmashree Anandhan
Return of the Heatwaves
Jerry Franklin A
A profile on Ethiopia's Oromo ethnic group
Sneha Surendran
A profile on Ethiopia’s Somali ethnic group
Nithyashree RB
A profile on Ethiopia’s Afar ethnic group
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia’s Amhara problem
Jerry Franklin A
ECOWAS and Niger remain at an impasse, causing a prolonged standoff
Lakshmi Parimala H
Mural, Movie and the Map: Akhand Bharat mural and Adipurush
Rishika Yadav
The High Seas Treaty
Indrani Talukdar
Ukraine War and the International Order
Jerry Franklin A
Coup in Niger: Manifold national, regional and international stances
Sneha Surendran
Senegal's political crisis: Four questions
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #73&74 | Coup in Niger and Senegal’s political crisis
Himani Pant
Germany-Russia Relations: What Next?
D. Suba Chandran
Que Sara Sara: Pakistan, Two Months After 09 May
Sneha Surendran
Pakistan’s e-Sport Industry: A Profile
Ramya Balasubramanian
Russia and Europe: Understanding Moscow’s strategies
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Return of Violence in Manipur
Nithyashree RB
The UN in Africa: MINUSMA has failed. So did Mali
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Myanmar continues to burn
Anu Maria Joseph
The Wagner Group in Africa: Fallouts of the failed revolt in Russia
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #69-71 | The Wagner Group in Africa
Lakshmi Parimala
Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine
Padmashree Anandhan
Rise and fall of the Wagner Revolt: Four Takeaways
Sneha Surendran
The Wagner Revolt: A profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine: Four Issues to watch in 2023
Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran, Sandra D Costa, Ryan Marcus, Prerana P and Nithyashree RB
Global Gender Gap Report 2023: Regional Takeaways
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
Anu Maria Joseph
Resurging insurgency in Uganda and insecurity in East Africa
Jerry Franklin
Eritrea: Back to the IGAD after 16 years
Bibhu Prasad Routray
India: Violence continues in Manipur
Jerry Franklin
Tunisia: A Political Profile
Jerry Franklin
Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis: Reasons for its continuation
Anu Maria Joseph
Ceasefires in Sudan: An uneasy trajectory
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George | Rishika Yadav is a Research Assistant in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS. Nithyashree RB, Sreeja JS, and Melvin George are Research Interns in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS.
The Battle for Bakhmut: Significance, Objectives, Course, and What Next
Nithyashree RB
Poland approves Russian Influence Law: Three Implications
Rishika Yadav | Research Assistant, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Serbia: Mass shootings, protests and instability
Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB | Research Assistant and Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023
Padmashree Anandhan | Research Associate National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore
Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus | Japan in Africa
Devjyoti Saha
Japan in Africa: Renewed Efforts to Revitalise Relations
Indrani Talukdar
Russia's Position in the Arctic: New challenges
Lakshmi Parimala H
Bhutan's Gross National Happiness
Amit Gupta
The Trump Phenomenon: Why it Won’t Go
Rishika Yadav
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
IPRI Team
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Stalemate
NIAS Africa Team
Droughts in East Africa: A climate disaster
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan: Intensifying political rivalry and expanding violence
NIAS Africa Team
Expanding Russia-South Africa relations
Padmashree Anandhan
Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia: The question of undocumented migrants
Indrani Talukdar
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
Bhoomika Sesharaj
PR Explains: Pakistan’s power outage
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan’s Blue Helmets: A long-standing contribution
D Suba Chandran
Karachi: The race and new alignments for the Mayor
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Nigeria elections: Ruling party wins; What is ahead?
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | M23 atrocities in DRC and upcoming Nigeria elections
NIAS Africa Team
Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts
IPRI Team
The continuing crisis in Israel
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
IPRI Team
Protests in Spain, Sweden and Israel
Avishka Ashok
China: A complicated economic recovery
Padmashree Anandhan
Europe: An impending energy crisis and its economic fallouts
Ankit Singh
Defence: Towards a new cold war
Riya Itisha Ekka
Brazil: Managing Bolsonaro’s legacy
Apoorva Sudhakar
Africa: Despite the elections, democratic backslide will continue
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan in 2023: Between elections, economic turmoil and climate crisis
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Sri Lanka in 2023: A troubling economy and an unstable polity
Avishka Ashok
Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Bamako’s pardon of Ivorian soldiers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The relapse of ANC
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Newsmakers: From Putin to Rushdie
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Rest in Peace; Queen Elizabeth. Mikhail Gorbachev, Pelé...
Ankit Singh
Global economy in 2022: The year of cooling down
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Digital world: Elon Musk and the Twitter Chaos
Madhura Mahesh
The FTX Collapse: Depleting cryptocurrencies
Harini Madhusudan
The Space race: Scaling new technological feats
Avishka Ashok
G20: More challenges
Akriti Sharma
COP27: Hits and Misses
Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine War
Poulomi Mondal
French Exit from Mali: More questions than answers
Mohaimeen Khan
Yemen, Syria, and Sudan: Continuing humanitarian crises
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO and the Madrid Summit: Expanding defence frontiers
Padmashree Anandhan
Elections in France, Sweden, and Italy: The rise of the right
Janardhan G
North Korea: Missile Tests Galore
Avishka Ashok
The Taiwan Strait: Political and military assertions
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia: Uncertainties despite ceasefire
Apoorva Sudhakar
Tunisia: The end of the Jasmine Revolution
Rashmi BR
Iraq: Deadlock and breakthrough
Kaviyadharshini A
Iran: Anti-government protests
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Sri Lanka: Political and Economic Crises
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: The coup and after
NIAS Africa Team
The US-Africa Leaders Summit
IPRI Team
Workers strike in the UK
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | End of Operation Barkhane
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
Drone attacks in Russia
Vignesh Ram | Assistant Professor | Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal
Malaysia’s recent Elections: More questions than answers
Vignesh Ram
Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysia's new Prime Minister
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
COP27: Ten key takeaways
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Challenges to peace in Eastern Congo
Avishka Ashok | Research Associate | National Institute of Advanced Studies
20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China: Major takaways
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal
Avishka Ashok
G20 Summit: Four takeaways from Bali
NIAS Africa Team
China-Africa relations: Looking back and looking ahead
NIAS Africa Team