The World This Week

The World This Week
Modi's US Visit, and the Wagner Revolt in Russia

GP Team
25 June 2023
Photo Source: Reuters

The World This Week #219, Vol. 5, No.23
25 June 2023

India and the US: Bilateral Collaboration on Technology dominates PM Modi's Visit 
Shreya Upadhyay 

What happened?
During 21-23 June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a State visit to the United States, aiming to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two nations. The carefully planned visit showcased the importance of international cooperation. It was reiterated in PM Modi's words: (the cooperation) "will reinforce ties based on shared values of democracy, diversity, and freedom." The visit witnessed the symbolism of India's cultural reach, with Modi practising yoga at the UN headquarters on International Yoga Day and including millet during the state dinner held in honour of the Prime Minister.

On 22 June, a 58-paragraph joint statement was issued after the bilateral meeting between the two leaders focusing on the domains of technology, defence, space, climate, economic investments, trade, education, health, people-to-people links, and strategic convergences across geographies, platforms, and institutions. 

On the same day, Modi addressed the joint US Congress. He emphasized India's commitment to climate goals, women's empowerment, the fight against terrorism, and other important issues. Talking about a growing economy, he said: "When India grows, the whole world grows."

On 23 June, Modi interacted with the Indian American diaspora—one of the largest immigrant groups in the US. He said: "The partnership between India and the United States will make the world better in the 21st Century. You all play a crucial role in this partnership." 

What is the background?
First, the increasing importance of technology in the US-India partnership. The visit is significant and builds on two and a half decades of cooperation between the two countries. Various agreements, especially within the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) framework-- tech transfer, trade, capacity building, research, and co-production constituted significant takeaways from the visit. Modi also took the opportunity to meet business leaders to push for substantial investment in India in critical sectors like trade, commerce, innovation, and technology. His meeting with Twitter chairman and TESLA CEO Elon Musk received maximum coverage. 

Second, the growing opportunity for New Delhi and Modi to expand their reach in the US and the expanding Indian footprints. This is Modi's sixth visit to the US since he became the Prime Minister in 2014. Once denied a visa for alleged violations of religious freedom, he was banned from entering the US for almost ten years. Since taking office, Modi has effectively embraced the White House in the nine years. The recent visit and diplomatic niceties illustrate India's growing influence in the rapidly transforming world order. The visit takes place against the backdrop of the US becoming India's largest trading partner in FY 2023 at USD128.55 billion, with India having a trade surplus of USD28 billion. The bilateral trade between India and the US increased by 7.65 per cent against USD 119.5 billion in 2021-22. It was USD 80.51 billion in 2020-21.

Third, geopolitical coupling on China. The strategic engagement between both countries can be seen with shared concerns over China and its increasing military might, growing economic influence, and territorial claims. China's actions along the Sino-India border have become increasingly antagonistic. In this regard, the two leaders discussed the nature of challenges in the Indo-Pacific with an eye on Beijing. The US perceives China as a threat that requires containment, with India as a crucial component in achieving this goal. For India, this moment marks a renewed energy in the bilateral ties and a more focused direction with the basis in shared strategic priorities. 

Fourth, a confident New Delhi. India is aiming to establish itself as a regional power with renewed vigour. The current trip is the latest addition to a slew of diplomatic engagements that the Indian government has taken in the last few months. Modi has met leaders of Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Ukraine in the months leading up to the US visit. Modi's next stop after the US is the state visit to Egypt at the invitation of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Underscoring India's diplomatic outreach with leaders in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. Even as India-US relations have deepened, India keeps its strategic autonomy and follows the geopolitical balance, especially in its interactions with Russia. India has carved a special position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While it may have distanced itself from Russia, it has continued to purchase oil, coal, and fertilizer from Russia and abstained from condemning Moscow in the United Nations.

What does it mean?
First, the expanding collaboration in the technology domain. Some of the deliverables included the co-production of jet engines in India by General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautical Limited to power Indian military aircraft, Indian purchase of armed drones, defence industrial collaboration with the launch of innovation platform - 'INDUS-X', semiconductor cooperation, space exploration and cooperation framework for human spaceflight cooperation by the end of 2023. The US is wooing India with a USD500-million military equipment and technology package that includes jet engines, critical minerals technology, and tech transfers to lessen India's dependence on Russian weaponry.

Second, intensifying people-to-people contacts. There have been announcements regarding the opening of new US consulates in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad and an Indian consulate in Seattle. The Biden administration will also make it easier for a small number of Indians and other foreign workers on H-1B visas to renew those visas in the US without having to travel abroad, which could be expanded in the coming years. Other wins include new investments in semiconductor production with chip assembly and test plants being set up in India. In trade, both countries have agreed to terminate six outstanding disputes at the World Trade Organization. India also agreed to remove retaliatory tariffs, which it had imposed in response to the US Section 232 national security measures on steel and aluminium, on US products, including chickpeas and apples. 

Third, exploring new domains. India has agreed to join the US-led Artemis Accords on space exploration and to work with NASA on a joint mission to the International Space Station in 2024. The accords will give India access to information and advance its space exploration. It can potentially bring the Indian space companies as part of a global supply chain, along with Indian SMEs and New Space startups.
The visit was about managing the differences that continue to exist between the two. 

Fourth, likely obstacles and deal breakers between the two countries, based on the recent bilateral history. The star items, such as the co-production of jet engines, have a long and bumpy regulatory road ahead. It remains to be seen how much technology will be transferred and whether India will be okay with the conditions attached, if any. Notably, the India-US nuclear deal still needs to be fully operationalized. Regarding the Artemis accord, critics argue it will limit opportunities for the Indian space program to develop indigenously. During this visit, no talks took place about the restoration of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status for India. About 2,000 products, including auto parts and textile materials, were allowed to enter the US duty-free. India's stance on Russia remains a prickly issue for Western countries, even as India and the US have agreed to disagree. 

The thorny issue is the allegations of human rights violations and the backsliding of democracy in India. Before Modi's upcoming visit, 75 members of the US Congress issued a letter to President Biden urging him to publicly address concerns regarding human rights and democracy in India. Yet, the White House was pragmatic and avoided broaching the subject, even referring to India as having a vibrant democracy. Both sides want to showcase "mutual trust and shared strategic priorities." 
 


Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan

What happened?
On 23 June, Prigozhin, a long-time ally of Putin and the leader of the private army Wagner Group revolted, claiming that the Russian military had killed many of his fighters in an airstrike. The Russian Defence Ministry denied these claims. Prigozhin said: "There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in this country." He also threatened to destroy checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. On the same night, security in Russia was tightened, and the internet was restricted while military trucks were spotted on Moscow streets. 

On 24 June, according to reports, the Wagner mercenaries had seized military facilities in Voronezh, a city halfway between Rostov and Moscow. Prigozhin said his fighters had entered Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine, and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way. Further, the Wagner group proclaimed that its mercenaries had seized all military facilities in Voronezh and added that they would march on Moscow to topple the defence minister Sergei Shoigu. 

On the same day, President Putin made an emergency address, saying Russia was facing "treason." According to his statement: "All those who consciously stood on the part of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the part of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people." Prigozhin responded, saying that his troops were "patriots of our motherland," and the president was "deeply wrong" to talk of betrayal. 

By 24 June evening, the Wagner fighters were advancing through the Lipetsk region, around 450 km from Moscow. The Wagner Group also announced that most Russian army units in the area were switching sides. There were also reports of Wagner fighters leaving the missions in Africa, and Syria, to join the revolt against Moscow. On the other hand, according to state reports, Russian air forces have struck Wagner convoys, and defensive positions around Moscow were set up. 

In a late-night development on 24 June, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko broke a deal between Russia and the Wagner Group. Prigozhin agreed to halt his advance towards Moscow and relocate to Belarus. Through a Telegram post, he had ordered his forces to return to their bases to avoid bloodshed. Following the deal, the Wagner fighters initiated their departure from Rostov-on-Don, which served as the starting point of their mutiny. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, announced that the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and the Wagner fighters involved in the "march for justice" would not face the consequences due to their previous service to Russia. Non-participating fighters are expected to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry by 01 July as part of efforts to centralize volunteer forces. Specific concessions made to Prigozhin remain undisclosed. 

What is the background?
First, the increasing tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian military. The differences between the two had been growing over how the war has been fought in Ukraine, with the Wagner group's strong criticisms of Russia's military leadership in recent months. Prigozhin repeatedly mentioned Russia's failure to provide sufficient ammunition, resulting in enormous casualties for the Wagner Group. The Wagner had threatened to withdraw from Bakhmut and complained about Russian military authorities for their incompetence. Prigozhin also blamed the Russian military leadership for attacking his men. The present escalation came after Prigozhin accused Russia's military of hitting his group's base in Ukraine. He threatened: "We are going onwards and we will go to the end. We will destroy everything that stands in our way." 

Second, the Wagner complaints over the last few months. Since joining the Russian troops at Bakhmut, Prigozhin had complained against the military, accusing them of not supplying ammunition for his fighters. In February, Prigozhin shared an image of dead fighters and blamed the military leaders for their death. In March, in a video message, he claimed that his fighters were being "set up" as scapegoats to take the blame in case Russia lost the war. Also in March, he complained about not getting ammunition according to the agreement calling it: "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal." As the battle for Bakhmut raged on, so did Prigozhin's social media rants against the military top brass. In one of his social media posts, he said: "The shells are lying in warehouses, they are resting there…why are the shells lying in the warehouses? There are people who fight, and there are people who have learned once in their lives that there must be a reserve, and they save, save, save those reserves…Instead of spending a shell to kill the enemy, they kill our soldiers. And happy grandfather thinks this is okay." In another post, he said: "There was only Wagner here...We fought not only the Ukrainian army here, we fought Russian bureaucracy." 

Third, the Belarus intervention. President Alexander Lukashenko, a close friend of President Putin, also has a long-standing personal connection with Yevgeny Prigozhin. He has played a mediating role in the agreement between Putin and Prigozhin. Initially, Putin had vowed to punish the mutineers, but the focus shifted towards avoiding further confrontation and bloodshed. Lukashenko's involvement in mediating the crisis highlights his influence and ties with Putin and the Wagner Group. 

What does it mean?
First, the fractured equation between Wagner and Russia. The Wagner group is considered Russia's most effective unit among the mercenary groups. From its extensive role in Africa, Syria, in the Crimean annexation in 2014 to the battles in Soledar and Bakhmut in the Ukraine war, Prigozhin has been at the forefront for Russia. The relations began to crack when Russia grew dependent on the Wagner group. Russia's shortage of personnel and constraints to restrict new mobilization delegated Wagner's head to deploy his forces. Wagner group's major role in Soledar and Bakhmut battles showcased its capability, while the Russian military was criticized for not giving enough ammunition and being ineffective in holding control. 

Second, the blow to bring the Wagner Group under the effective control of the Russian military. The Wagner's head did not accept the military's efforts to bring the mercenary units under one contract. The revolt could be seen as a reflection of unwillingness of the Wagner to work under direct Russian military command. This highlights an internal divide between supporters of Putin and Prigozhin and a more significant question to the leadership of Russia.

Third, the impact of the Wagner revolt on Russia's war in Ukraine. For Russia to fight in Ukraine, a new mobilization was launched to recruit more. The recruits and not-so-fully trained soldiers led to the gap between operations and command. Although there was not much awareness or objection against Russia on mobilization, Russia slowed down the recruitment to prevent domestic dissent. On the other hand, the Wagner was allowed to recruit prisoners across Russia and command better despite the shortage of equipment. Human resource is the strength of any war; Russia's operation in Ukraine will have consequences of Prigozhin leaving for Belarus. Ukraine will benefit from the recent development. The immediate impact will be on the Wagner units deployed inside Ukraine, which may pause their operations or stop fighting for Russia. The damage caused to the M4 highway, and Rostov-on-Don is crucial to Russia's offensive in southern Ukraine and can help Ukraine gain in its counter-offensive. 

Fourth, Putin's reputation. As stated by Putin, the motive of the Ukraine invasion was to bring back USSR or reinstall Russia as a geopolitical power, but the fallouts of the war have been nothing but a backfire. From Finland joining NATO to minor incursions into Russia, the Wagner group's revolt should question Putin's reputation within Russia.


News from around the World 
Regional Roundups

East and Southeast Asia This Week
China: Antony Blinken visits Beijing
On 19 June, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Chinese President Xi Jinping aiming to stabilize the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. While no concrete objective was achieved, the two sides agreed to frequent communications. Xi Jinping said: "The United States and China have an obligation and responsibility to manage our relationship." Blinken said the talk was candid and constructive while expressing his disappointment with China's refusal to restart military-to-military contacts. 

Taiwan: Trade deal with the US 
On 21 June, the 'US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade' was signed on trade and economic negotiations. The agreement was approved by the US House of Representatives, which provides a framework for streamlining customs procedures, aiding small businesses to work through regulatory procedures and strengthening the US- Taiwan trade and economic relations. Representative Jason Smith said: "The relationship between the United States and Taiwan is vital to US interest in the Indo-Pacific….it shows the world the Chinese Communist Party will not intimidate the United States from deepening our relationship with Taiwan."

Myanmar: Further US sanctions 
On 21 June, Al-Jazeera reported that the US implemented sanctions on Myanmar's defence ministry and two banks used by the military regime for arms purchases and other transactions. The US Treasury Department revealed that the military had relied on foreign sources, including Russian entities under sanctions, to acquire arms and materials for weapons manufacturing, supporting their "brutal repression." The sanctions target the state-owned Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank (MFTB) and Myanmar Investment and Commercial Bank (MICB) for facilitating access to international markets for revenue-generating state-owned enterprises. 

Laos: Multinational peacekeeping exercise commences in Mongolia
On 20 June, the Laotian Times reported that Laos made its inaugural participation in a multinational military training exercise. The multinational peacekeeping exercise - Khaan Quest 2023, commenced at the Five Hills Training Area near Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia's capital. The 19th edition of the exercise involves more than 1,100 military personnel from 25 countries, including China, the US, Canada, and India. The Mongolian Armed Forces and the US Army Pacific Command co-sponsor the exercise to foster cooperation, exchange experiences, and train personnel for UN Peacekeeping Operations. The 14-day training program includes command post exercises, field training exercises, lectures, and demonstrations, preparing participants for future peacekeeping missions and enhancing military readiness.

Vietnam: FATF places Hanoi under the grey list
On 23 June, the third Plenary of the FATF concluded in Paris. The new jurisdictions subject to increased monitoring by FATF were Cameroon, Croatia and Vietnam. FATF mentioned that Vietnam has agreed to demonstrate its effectiveness in controlling money laundering and will prevent funding for weapons of mass destruction within agreed timeframes. In the past, Vietnam suggested taking a role in denuclearising North Korea.

South Asia This Week
Maldives: Former President Mohamed Nasheed quits ruling MDP
On 21 June, former President Mohamed Nasheed quit the ruling party MDP. He tweeted: "After taking into account how things are in the country at the moment, I don't think it is the best course of action for me to remain in this party." His decision came after a political struggle with President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Last month Nasheed launched his party - The Democrats, which received support from MDP politicians.

Sri Lanka: UN official highlights "deficit of accountability"
On 23 June, The Hindu reported that the UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights, Nada Al-Nashif, said accountability remains the "fundamental gap" in Sri Lanka's attempts to deal with the past. She said: "What is needed is a coherent plan that connects the different elements of truth, redress, memorialization, accountability and creates the right enabling environment for a successful and sustainable transitional justice process." 

Pakistan: Invitation to China and Europe to set up LNG Plants
On 22 June 2023, the Pakistan State Minister for Petroleum expressed interest in energy trade with Central Asia and proposed importing gas through a pipeline to Pakistan. He invited China and Europe to establish LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) plants in Gwadar and export gas. Additionally, he announced that an LNG purchase agreement with Azerbaijan would resolve Pakistan's gas crisis. 

Pakistan: UAE offers to acquire Karachi port 
On 22 June, United Arab Emirates offered to control Karachi Port for 50 years, with an upfront USD 50 million, USD 18 per cross berth royalty fee and USD 3.21 per square metre fee. The Karachi Port Trust is to get over USD 23 million per annum. The Cabinet Committee on inter- Governmental Commercial Transactions (CCOIGCT), headed by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, discussed the drafts of the Operations, Maintenance, Investment and Development Agreement between Karachi Port Trust (KPT) and Abu Dhabi Ports. 

Middle East and Africa This Week
South Africa: Netherlands, Denmark and South Africa launch Green Fund
On 21 June, Africa News reported that South Africa, Netherlands and Denmark launched a USD one billion green hydrogen fund to combat climate change. During a business forum in Pretoria, the Dutch Prime Minister stated that South Africa could potentially lead the fight against climate change. President Ramaphosa welcomed the efforts, stating their investments in renewable energy would benefit all three countries.

Kenya: President Ruto signs EU trade deal
On 19 June, Al Jazeera reported that Kenyan President William Ruto signed a trade deal with the European Union to receive duty-free and quota-free access to the EU. Al Jazeera quoted Ruto stating that the EU was the "second most important development partner following the World Bank." This is the first broad deal between the EU and Kenya since 2016. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovkis stated that the deal is open for the other members of the East Africa Community (EAC)- which includes the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan.

South Africa: France requests to join BRICS summit
On 20 June, BBC reported that France requested an invitation to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa, which has been scheduled for August. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna stated: "We are thinking aloud but this obviously a decision that only the countries concerned can take- about the possibility of continuing this dialogue, why not BRICS summit or in another format." 

Qatar: Major LNG deal with China
On 20 June, QatarEnergy and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a major gas deal. In the 27-year agreement, the CNPC will purchase four million metric tonnes of LNG annually from QatarEnergy. The Qatari energy minister said the agreement will "further enhance strong relations with one of the most important gas markets in the world and key market for Qatari energy products." CNPC will also buy an equity stake in the eastern expansion plans of Qatar's North Field LNG Project. In November 2022, QatarEnergy signed another 27-year agreement with China's Sinopec to supply four million tonnes annually.

Qatar and UAE: Diplomatic re-engagement
On 19 June, Qatar and UAE announced the reopening of their respective embassies, reinstating diplomatic relations after six years. The statement noted that the Qatari embassy in Abu Dhabi, consulate in Dubai, and Emirati embassy in Doha had resumed operations. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt had imposed a blockade on Qatar for supporting pro-Tehran terrorist groups. The blockade was officially lifted in January 2021.

Europe and the Americas This Week
Ukraine: African delegation's peace plan
On 16 June, Ukrinform reported that South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa introduced the African Peace Mission's 10-point peace plan during the visit to Ukraine. The plan called for ending the war and promoting peace restoration through diplomatic talks. On 17 June, The Kyiv Independent reported on the African leader's delegation that visited Kyiv. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that peace talks could happen only after the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil. During the interaction. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said Russia: "Never refused to conduct negotiations." 

Switzerland: Moves ahead with climate-sensitive law
On 18 June, 59.1 per cent of voters in Switzerland voted to approve the government's new climate and innovation law. The law focuses on tackling achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It also aims at increasing energy security by replacing imported fossil fuels with Swiss-made renewables. Businesses will also benefit from incentives if they invest in green technologies. 

Europe: 11th set of sanctions imposed on Russia after Greece and Hungary give green signal
On 21 June, European Pravda reported on approving the 11th package of sanctions against Russia after Greece and Hungary dropped their objections. Sweden's Presidency of the Council of the EU tweeted that the package would include measures to counter sanctions circumvention and individual listings. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the "political agreement" and tweeted that this move would be another blow to Putin's war machine. According to Reuters, the new sanctions package would forbid transit through Russia an expanded list of goods and technology that might aid Moscow's military and security. It would also include restrictions on selling dual-use goods and technology to third-world countries that might sell it to Russia. The sanctions are expected to extend the suspension of EU broadcasting licences of five Russian state-controlled media and ban ships engaged in ship-to-ship transfers' access to EU ports if the cargo is suspected of Russian origin. It adds another 71 people and 33 entities to those banned from the EU.

Brazil: Football's anti-racism campaign
On 17 June, Brazil's national men's football team wore an all-black outfit for a match for the first time as part of their anti-racism campaign. The campaign slogan, "Com Racismo nao tem jogo," which means "With racism, there is no game," was written on the front of the shirts. Players from both teams, Brazil and the opponent team Guinea, either took a knee or sat down while observing a minute's silence before beginning their match. The campaign that aims to address racism in soccer has received appreciation and support from FIFA.

Haiti: Amnesty International appeals to end 'racist' treatment of refugees
On 20 June, on account of International Day of Refugees, Amnesty International called upon countries across the Americas to stop their racist treatment of refugees from Haiti, saying: "Racist migration and asylum policies only exacerbate the harm already inflicted on people forced to endure and flee the humanitarian and human rights crises in Haiti." Haitian refugees often face discrimination, racism, xenophobia, and gender-based violence within host countries. They also face a lack of access to basic necessities in refugee camps. 

Belize: WHO gives 'malaria-free' certification
On 21 June, Belize was declared malaria-free by the World Health Organization. WHO praised the country's efforts to tackle the disease by giving it a prime spot in its public health agenda. With this, Belize becomes the third country after Azerbaijan and Tajikistan to be awarded the certification this year.

Brazil: Uncertainty looms over EU-Mercosur deal
On 23 June, Brazilian President Lula said that the long-delayed trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur bloc was impossible to achieve as it included a "threat" directed at Brazil. The negotiations had been completed in 2019, but the deal had faced a delay in implementation as the EU had concerns about the Amazon deforestation and Brazil's commitment to climate action. The EU has added a new section to the deal wherein it mentions penalties for nations that fail to comply with the 2015 Paris Agreement climate goals. In response, Lula said, "I am available to reach an agreement (on Mercosur), but with this additional letter from the EU, it's not possible."

The US: Senate upholds Biden's veto on the bill limiting Environment Protection Agency's role
On 21 June, the US Senate upheld Biden's stance in a vote to override President Biden's veto of a bill limiting the Environment Protection Agency's role in prescribing emission cuts. On 15 June, Joe Biden vetoed the Congress-approved bill. Biden tweeted that limiting hazardous heavy-duty vehicle pollution is important to make cleaner air and prevent deaths from pollution.

The US: Libra Group launches the world's first space leasing company
On 20 June, the Libra Group launched Space Leasing International (SLI) to build the group's experience in the space economy. SLI will own and lease a range of space assets from ground stations, satellites, space ports, and other needs. Libra Group has experience in leasing in its aviation and maritime subsidiaries. CEO of SLI said: "SLI is building out an end-to-end portfolio of space assets available for lease to operators, providing a critical, otherwise missing link between the manufacturer and operator. This helps grow production capacity, strengthens the product to the market value chain, and ultimately spurs critical innovation and development of space assets."


About the Authors
Dr Shreya Upadhyay, Deputy Director (Hon) Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies. Harini Madhusudan, Rashmi Ramesh, Akriti Sharma and Ankit Singh are PhD scholars in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis and Rishika Yadav are Research Associates at NIAS. Sneha Sunrendaran, Prerena P and Ryan Marcus Manuel are Research Interns at NIAS.  


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June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
New Deal amidst Israeli incursion and Hezbollah’s retaliation
June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal: 
Why did the Permanent Court of Arbitration reject Rwanda’s claims? What was Rwanda’s complaint? Why did the UK cancel the deal?
June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa This Week:
The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts
May 2026 | CWA # 2126

Aparna A Nair

The Shenzhou-23 Mission:
China’s Space Missions, Technology, and Infrastructure
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B

The Crisis in Cuba:
The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability
May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal

The Ebola and the DR Congo:
Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses
May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:
Ballistic missiles, Nuclear drills with Belarus, and the Czech ammunition initiative
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East
The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair

The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

King Charles's US Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis 

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey  & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories
November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies
February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?
February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta