The World This Week

The World This Week
Boris Johnson's resignation in UK, Shinzo Abe assassination in Japan, and the G-20 meeting in Bali

GP Team
10 July 2022
Photo Source: BBC

The World This Week #173, Vol. 4, No. 22

10 July 2022

Sourina Bej and Avishka Ashok


The UK: After Boris Johnson’s resignation, a tight race for the next prime minister begins
 
What happened?
On 9 July, former health secretary Sajid Javid launches his bid to replace Boris Johnson as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom. Alongside, former foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt was the second candidate to enter the race with his policy to lower business taxes. On 8 July, the leader of the Labour Party said they would call a national election using a vote of confidence unless the Conservatives removed Johnson from office. 
 
On 7 July, after a series of cabinet resignations and with blame for disrespecting one’s code of political conduct, prime minister Boris Johnson stepped down as the party leader. He will however continue as the prime minister till a new leader is elected from within the conservative party. The outgoing leader said, “To you the British public… I want you to know how sad I am to be giving up the best job in the world. But them’s the breaks.”
 
On 5 July, 44 resignations had determined Johnson’s resignation. But on 7 June, the pushout of Johnson started after controversies over Downing Street parties breaking the COVID-19 protocol tainted the party’s public image. The Tory MPs called a confidence vote on the prime minister, which he won by 211 votes, yet 41 per cent of parliamentary Tories wanted him out. 
 
What is the background?
First, the partygate scandal as the trigger. In courting scandals, Partygate provided a reason for the party to disassociate from Johnson. After Sue Gray’s report on the 10 Downing Street pandemic parties, the prime minister was fined, he lost a string of by-elections, and appointed an alleged sexual assaulter as his deputy chief whip which appalled his own ministers who backed him in 2019. During his three years in office, Johnson’s conduct of misleading the press, and lying to his own party members with an unapologetic hint, became a crucial violation of the party, political and public code of conduct. 
 
Second, the conservative party’s losing political ground. Engaged in salvaging Johnson’s scandals, the party machinery was incapacitated from looking into crucial issues such as economic inequalities and retaining public mandate. Four prime ministers in six years: the speed with which the conservative party replaced and elected its leaders, raises questions about the stability of the party machinery itself. “Getting Brexit done” had figuratively impaired the Tory consensus and the political trust was further eroding when Boris Johnson took a hardline approach over  Northern Ireland Protocol. A strong argument among Tory MPs for getting rid of Johnson is his unpopularity, yet it could also be argued that underneath a self-sabotaging leader, conservatives have also subterfuge their lack of a new vision for policy change. 
 
Third, waning public support. Lack of policy vision and dwindling public opinion could be observed in the post-Brexit realities when inflation, food shortages, and healthcare crisis emerged much before the war pushed the energy prices throughout Europe. The only big economic measures from the party were in the last few months after former chancellor to the exchequer, Rishi Sunak committed £15bn. Some of the party’s ideas to cut the cost of living such as windfall tax had been proposed by the labour party before. The Brexit had brought back queues, and wastage of harvest leading voters to target their anger at the leader representing the party.

What does it mean?
First, the new leader of the conservative party will not only have to provide an alternative to the party but also to the people and the region itself. Starting with the introspection of the party pathways, conservatives will have to bring back the Number 10 operation with full political trust. For the new leader, the support of the backbencher committee, accountability in the PMQ sessions, and honest interaction with the press could probably salvage the inner rebellion and the Conservative’s fear of a rout in the local elections. Secondly, getting Brexit done just not in rhetoric will be a harder negotiating path yet to be foreseen. The Northern Ireland protocol bill could have sabotaged the Good Friday agreement, but the question that still remains is how to bring the electoral representation back in the province?



Japan: Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination and his legacy 

What happened?
On 8 July, the former Prime Minister of Japan and serving member of the House of Representatives Shinzo Abe was assassinated at a political rally in the Nara Prefecture. Abe was rallying for his party Liberal Democratic Party’s candidate when he was shot from behind. He was declared dead five and a half hours after being rushed to Nara Medical University Hospital. 

The assassination was carried out by a former member of the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force Tetsuya Yamagami who held Abe responsible for his family’s bankruptcy caused by the Unification Church. The accused used a homemade gun resembling a double-barreled shot gun. Other explosives and homemade weapons were found at the suspect’s house, who is now in police custody. 

Heads of States around the world responded to Abe’s death with great remorse and expressed their condolences. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China’s President Xi Jinping, Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol and many more leaders across the world expressed their shock and recounted Abe’s achievements and praiseworthy decisions during his tenure as the leader of Japan. 

The Quad also issued a joint statement at the assassination and was signed by the US, Australia and India. The heads of states pledged to “honour Abe’s memory by redoubling our work towards a peaceful and prosperous region.” 

What is the background?
First, Abe’s political career. Shinzo Abe was Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister. He served as the Chief Cabinet Secretary for a year in 2005. He held the office of the Prime Minister in 2006 for a year and came back in power in 2012 for eight years. Abe entered Japanese politics in 1993 and took the office of the Prime Minister for the second time when Japan was dealing with the impact of the Great Recession of 2008. His appointment as the 96th Prime Minister came after years of short-term leadership and rampant sudden resignations by the former leaders due to lack of support, dissolution of the house, and other controversies. At the peak of his career in 2020, he stepped down from his position citing his health issues. 

Second, internal policies. While Japan’s economy was suffering setbacks from the state of the global economy, Abe introduced an economic policy which was later named after him, Abenomics. The policy was aimed at economic revitalization through monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. The policy received wide support within and outside the country. Other than the structural reforms, Abe was able to revive the GDP growth rates and stabilized ratio of government debt for the first time in decades. The structural reforms brought in by Abe aimed to increase the proportion of women in the workforce, establishing inexpensive day-cares for children and initiate a robotic revolution to deal with the shrinking population. 

Third, foreign affairs during Abe’s tenure. Abe was known as a conservative and a right-wing Japanese nationalist who aimed to change the country’s defence policies and amend the post-war constitution. The latter was heavily criticized by China who condemned the Imperialist era of Japan in the pre-war period. Abe was successful in bridging the gap between the neighbouring countries by meeting the Chinese President Xi Jinping at numerous occasions and discussing the challenges in bilateral issues. Abe maintained a close relationship with the US, further antagonizing the Chinese. Despite the hostility, Abe was firm on Japan’s control over the disputed Senkaku/ Diaoyu islands pushed for constitutional reforms to revive Japan’s defence until the end of his tenure. He pushed for a stronger defence in the Indo-Pacific region and pitched the idea of the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”, now known as Quad, in 2007. 

Fourth, gun-related violence in Japan. The gun laws in Japan are extremely strict and the individuals are required to pass a written test, psychiatric evaluation, drug test, criminal background check and a gun skills competency test. The guns per capita in Japan is 0.6 per cent while in the US is at 88.8 per cent. The use of ammunitions is entirely controlled by the government and it is highly rare to have gun-related violence in the country. 

What does it mean?
The assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe comes as a shock because of the non-violent and practically rare gun related violence in the country. He was an asset to Japan who led the country during challenging political and economic times. His contributions to the economic revival have played a key role in Japan’s status and stature in the international order in the present times. He foresaw the threats of militarization in the region and rallied support to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific. Abe efficiently managed Japan’s foreign relations between the US and China at a time when there was growing hostility and trade wars between the global superpowers. Abe’s assassination is an unfortunate event in the history of Japan. 
 


TWTW Special Note
China and the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Bali, Indonesia
On 7 July, Indonesia hosted the Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali. 

China and Russia at G20
On 7 July, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and noted that the countries had overcome obstacles and maintained normality in exchanges while pushing for cooperation in various fields. Wang said that the continuation of healthy ties portrayed the resilient relations between China and Russia. Wang referred to the challenges in the world order and said: “Facing the realities of the current international politics, will countries choose to pursue power politics and hegemony, or promote a multi-polar world? Wang asked. Will they truly uphold the international order with the UN at its core or follow the rules made by a handful of countries according to their standards?” 

The Russian narrative sees the G20 summit as a farce. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, left the meeting before the end, and the US counterpart was seen delivering insults. The G20 is seen as something that achieved no results on issues vital to today's world. The conflict between Russia and the West has dampened the spirits of the meeting. Russian experts say that the organisation that helped overcome the 2008 financial crisis will not be able to address the energy and food challenges that the world currently faces.

Global Food Security
Wang Yi addressed the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and proposed a cooperative initiative on global food security. Wang Yi stressed the importance of food and energy in the healthy performance of the world economy and in the journey towards achieving the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Wang Yi made eight proposals to achieve the goal. First, strengthening and supporting the role of the United Nations and its supporting institutions such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the UN World Food Programme (WFP). Second, removing restrictions on humanitarian purchases made by the WFP. Third, including agricultural products from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Fourth, revealing and expanding the export potential of capable countries, reducing trade barriers and bringing efficiency to producing food. Fifth, emergency measures for food trade should adhere to the rules of the World Trade Organization while ensuring short-term plans, transparent deals, target and appropriate sale. Sixth, restrictions on high-tech exchanges must be reduced, and countries must share agricultural innovation and expand cooperation on related technologies. Seventh, reduce food waste and implement the consensus reached the International Conference on Food Loss and Waste. Eighth, extending a helping hand to developing countries in increasing their production capabilities, and storage facilities and assisting in agricultural processes.

China on Ukraine at G20
Wang Yi also spoke about the Ukraine crisis and highlighted China’s concerns. On behalf of the country, Wang Yi opposed instigating the cold war mentality, comparing the crisis in Ukraine with the status of Taiwan and opposed the imposition of sanctions against China and other countries. He called for increased solidarity and dialogue rather than division and confrontation. Taking a stand against double standards, Wang Yi opposed countries for raising the question of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and urged all countries to adhere to the one-China principle. He said: “China's three points of concern clearly show that hegemony is not welcome in handling global affairs, and hegemony is also the essential reason for the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” 

China and the EU at G20
Wang Yi also met with the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and encouraged the European countries to uphold the multilateral practices and the basic orientation of their comprehensive strategic partnership. He further urged the EU to maintain the positive momentum of dialogue while keeping away from issues that widen the differences with China. He said: “China and the EU should adhere to the mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation, uphold true multilateralism and oppose any acts that trumpet decoupling and violate the law of the economy. Both sides should reject zero-sum games, instigation of bloc confrontation and attempts to stoke a new Cold War.” 

China and Argentina at G20
The Foreign Minister also met with the Argentine Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero and reassured support for strengthening coordination and increasing cooperation along the Belt and Road Initiative. Wang stressed the close relationship between the two countries' leaders and appreciated Argentina’s friendly policies towards China. He said: “This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, and China is willing to work with Argentina to advance the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road, helping accelerate their respective development and revitalization.”

China and South Korea at G20
Wang Yi also held a meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and agreed to expand bilateral cooperation and deepen exchanges between the countries. The countries are celebrating 30 years of diplomatic relations this year. Wang noted the abundance of opportunities but also the existence of practical challenges that face the countries in the coming years. He said: “As close neighbors and inseparable partners with closely-related security environment and an industrial cycle of converging interests, China and South Korea should uphold the already reached consensus and understanding, and maintain the stability and continuity of their policies towards each other.”

China and Canada at G20
Wang Yi met with Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and promised to work towards bringing the bilateral relations back on track. During the meeting, Wang Yi reiterated that China never viewed Canada as a rival or a threat but only as a partner. He said: “A sound and stable China-Canada relationship is the common aspiration of the two peoples and serves the common interests of both sides. China hopes that Canada will respect facts, be cautious in words and deeds on China-related issues, and work with China to meet each other halfway to build mutual trust to bring China-Canada relations back on track.” He further stressed the countries’ support for similar ideals and common interests, such as advocating for multilateralism, democratizing international relations and safeguarding globalization.

China and France at G20
Wang Yi held a meeting with the French Foreign Minister Matherine Colonna in Bali on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. The countries agreed to enhance strategic cooperation and deepen pragmatic collaboration while appreciating the stable development of the bilateral ties under the heads of the states. At the meeting, Wang Yi said: “China cherishes the mutual trust and friendship between the two sides, and highly appreciates and firmly supports France for upholding strategic autonomy.” The Foreign Ministers promised to strengthen cooperation on climate change and biodiversity conservation and also discussed China’s relations with the European Union, the Ukraine war, the Korean Peninsula and other issues of mutual interest. Wang Yi expressed that China expects France to play a constructive role in building and maintaining the country’s relations with the EU.

Australia at G20
The Foreign Minister of Australia, Penny Wong announced that the country would attempt to end the trade blockages and seek to defrost the icy relations with China. Wong said: “We all know we have our differences. There are challenges in the relationship. We believe engagement is necessary to stabilise the relationship. We won't be making any concessions regarding Australia's interests. We don't believe those blockages are in our interests. We would say to China, they are not in China's interests.”

India at G20
On 7 July, Indian External Affairs Ministers met the Chinese Foreign Minister and Russian Foreign Minister on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Bali. Indian Minister tweeted: “Met FM Sergey Lavrov of Russia on the sidelines of the Bali #G20FMM. Discussed bilateral matters of mutual interest. Also exchanged views on contemporary regional and international issues including the Ukraine conflict and Afghanistan.” He tweeted the same day: “Began my day in Bali by meeting FM Wang Yi of China. The discussion lasted one hour. Focused on specific outstanding issues in our bilateral relationship pertaining to the border situation. Also spoke about other matters including students and flights.” 

Wang Yi appreciated the neighbouring country for maintaining communication and exchanges, effectively managing differences and encouraging the momentum of recovery in the overall bilateral relations. Wang said that China and India would not follow the West in their ideologies as they had common interests and similar claims. According to Wang, the countries were destined to uphold strategic persistence and achieve their own goals in the international order. He said: “We need to take concrete actions to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, being each other's partner, not posing a threat to each other and being a mutual development opportunity, bringing bilateral relations back on the right track as early as possible.” 


Also, in the news...
Regional round-ups

East and Southeast Asia This Week
Taiwan: China responds to US Senator’s visit and meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen
On 8 July, the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army announced that the military had held joint combat readiness exercises, patrols and drills near Taiwan’s sea and airspace. China’s Ministry of Defence Spokesperson Wu Qian further reasoned that the exercises were held as a response to the provocations by the US and Taiwan. The Chinese fighter jets crossed the median line of the Taiwan Straits in response to US Senator Rick Scott’s visit to Taiwan and his meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen. Wu responded to a question on Scott’s visit during a press briefing and said: “The US side's move seriously violates the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiqués, seriously damages the political foundation of Sino-US relations, seriously undermines the relationship between the two countries and the two militaries, and escalates tensions in the Taiwan Strait region.”

Taiwan: New jet trainer showed off by Air Force
On 6 July, the new AT-5 Brave Eagle was unveiled by Taiwan's air force, which was created and manufactured domestically, and was showcased for its superior combat capabilities in place of the current fleet's outdated and accident-prone older models. Even though the majority of Taiwan's armed forces' equipment comes from the United States, President Tsai Ing-wen has prioritised the growth of sophisticated domestic defence industry, particularly as China, which claims Taiwan as its own, intensifies military modernization activities and drills close to Taiwan. With a US$2.3 billion budget, the state-owned Aerospace Industrial Development Corp built the jet trainer, which had its first test flight in 2020. 

Philippines: China’s Foreign Minister holds meeting with top officials; enhances bilateral relations
On 6 July, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the Philippines and met with the top political leaders and officials. Wang Yi met the National Security Advisor Clarita Carlos and appreciated the joint efforts from the two sides to improve bilateral relations over the past six years. Wang Yi’s visit portrayed the emphasis of the Chinese government on maintaining healthy relations with the new Philippine government. Wang Yi also met with Foreign Secretary Luis Enrique Manalo and concurred to enhance further the friendship and mutual trust between China and the Philippines. Manalo promised to adhere to the one-China policy and hoped to increase the mutual friendship between the states. Wang also appreciated the proper handling of the maritime issues and said that the countries had undertaken a strategic and overarching perspective in the dispute; thereby providing a proper position on the issue. Wang Yi also met the Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos and spoke about the challenges to bilateral trade and the issues in the South China Sea. President Marcos noted that China is the largest trading partner and is an important development partner for the country. 

Lancang-Mekong Cooperation: China meets with Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar on the sidelines of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting 
On 3 July, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Myanmar’s Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin and agreed to increase cooperation in diverse fields. The meeting was held on the sidelines of the Seventh Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Myanmar. The leaders agreed to speed up the construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the implementation of the cross-border power grid agreement. On the same day, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn held a meeting. They discussed ways to enhance relations and cooperation between China and Cambodia. Wang Yi appreciated the overall development of cooperation between the two countries and expressed China’s willingness to continue working with Cambodia to solidify the idea of a joint community with a shared future. Wang Yi also met with Lao Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith and stressed expanding their cooperation along the logistics chain, value chain and production chain while using the China-Laos Railway line. The countries also agreed to fight against the cold-war mentality in the international order and reject the interference in internal affairs.

South Asia This Week
Afghanistan: the US to rescind Kabul’s designation as a major non-Nato ally
On 6 July, President Joe Biden's letter to Congress expressed his intent to rescind Afghanistan’s designation as a major non-Nato ally. He said, “In accordance with section 517 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended (22 U.S.C. 2321k), I am providing notice of my intent to rescind the designation of Afghanistan as a Major Non-NATO Ally.” Following this announcement, the Taliban-led interim administration welcomed the decision. A Taliban spokesperson said, “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) is not worried,” adding, “What benefit did this title have for Afghanistan?” The United States designated Afghanistan as a major non-NATO ally in July 2012.

Afghanistan: Acting defence minister meets with Qatari officials in Doha
On 5 July, the Taliban’s Acting Afghan Defence Minister Mohammad Mujahid met with Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani in Doha. During the meeting, matters related to national reconciliation, ensuring rights to citizens, and several other topics were discussed. Following the meeting, the Taliban’s Defense Ministry said, “In this meeting, both sides discussed bilateral cooperation in security and defence sectors. Acting Minister of Defense welcomed the cooperation of Qatar and asked for more cooperation.” Similarly, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said, “Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs underscored the significance of working to achieve national reconciliation in Afghanistan, in addition to making sure that the Afghan people obtain their entire rights and secure a dignified life that includes the prosperity for all its segments, emphasising the State of Qatar’s continued support for the Afghan people.”
  
Pakistan: Bilawal and Blinken reaffirm the mutual desire to strengthen bilateral ties
On 6 July, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari held a telephone with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The two sides reiterated the mutual commitment to deepen Pakistan-US ties by expanding cooperation in various sectors. FM Bilawal via Twitter, said, "We agreed to expand our engagement in trade, energy, health & security, marking 75 years of our relationship. We must increase people-to-people & business-to-business contacts." Similarly, Secretary Blinken said, “We want to focus on the work we’re doing to strengthen our economic and commercial ties between the United States and Pakistan; of course, focus on regional security.” On the same day, US Ambassador to Pakistan Donald Blome called on State Minister for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar today and discussed "matters of mutual interest."

Pakistan: Gwadar rights leader threatens to close Gwadar port
On 4 July, Dawn reported that Maulana Hidayatur Rehman Baloch, the leader of the Gwadar rights movement, threatened to close the Gwadar port on 21 July if the demands were agreed by the provincial government earlier in April were not fulfilled. He said that the demands of the Gwadar rights movement included freeing the coast of Balochistan from the trawler mafia, opening border points in Gwadar, eliminating drug trafficking, and removing unnecessary check-posts.

Central Asia, Middle East and Africa This Week
Syria: Russia vetoes the UN Resolution allowing cross-border aid
On 8 July, Russia vetoed the UN Security Council Resolution to extend the cross-border aid to Syria by one year without the need for Syrian government’s backing. The authorization for the aid across the Syria-Turkey border at Bab-al-Hawa, in place since 2014, is a lifeline to the war-ravaged Idlib’s population, which is in dire need of food and humanitarian aid. The veto comes as no surprise, as Russia is a close ally of the Assad regime and had previously stated its decision to veto when called for voting. Louis Charbonneau, the UN representative at the Human Rights Watch, said that “millions of people depend on the aid that is coming through Bab al-Hawa… there is no plan B that is anywhere near as good as Plan A.”

Israel and Palestine: Joe-Biden’s scheduled visit and cooperative measures taking shape
On 8 July, ahead of US President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East, Israeli defence minister Benny Gantz visited Palestinian Authority’s headquarters in Ramallah and held talks with the PA President Mahmoud Abbas. Gantz remarked that the meeting “was held for the purpose of security and civil coordination in preparation for the US President's visit… it involved an agreement to continue security coordination between PA and Israel.” On 7 July, Israel Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Freij said that the country has been in talks with Saudi Arabia for admitting direct flights from Tel Aviv for Muslim pilgrims performing Hajj.

JCPOA: Qatar’s Foreign Minister in Tehran
On 6 July, Qatar’s foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani travelled to Tehran and met Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian regarding the JCPOA. He also met Iran’s security chief Ali Shamkhani. The visit comes soon after the indirect talks between Iran, the US and European Union, hosted by Doha, ended inconclusively.

Syria: President Assad visits Aleppo
On 8 July, President Bashar al Assad and his family visited the ancient city of Aleppo and inaugurated a power plant previously controlled by the rebels and destroyed in the country’s 11-year-long war. His visit was his first after the pro-government forces re-captured the rebel-held province in 2016 and the power plant following a battle. He also visited the historical sites in Aleppo, which are undergoing renovation after being partially destroyed in the war.

Africa: First Kiswahili Language Day celebrated
On 7 July, Africa celebrated its first Kiswahili Language Day. Celebrations were held across Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, where the language is widely used. Kenya's tourism minister said: " This is our pride because the United Nations have acknowledged our African language." With this, Kiswahili is now included in the official languages of the African Union. The other languages are English, French, Spanish, Arabic and Portuguese. In November 2021, UNESCO declared 7 July as Kiswahili Day. Across Africa and the Middle East, an estimated 200 million people speak Kiswahili which ranks among the ten most spoken languages globally.

Tunisia: Opposition parties call for a boycott of the referendum on the constitution
On 7 July, hundreds of protesters attempted to gather at the electoral commission office to demonstrate against the upcoming referendum on a new constitution proposed by president Kais Saied. The protests were led by the Free Constitutional Party; however, police and security forces pushed back the protesters. On 8 July, BBC reported that the Ennahda Party had also called on its members to boycott the referendum and the party spokesperson said the vote was not in Tunisians’ interests.

Burkina Faso: Compaore returns for reconciliation summit
On 7 July, former president Blaise Compaore returned to Burkina Faso from exile in Ivory Coast. Compaore returned after he was invited by the current president Paul Henri Damiba for a reconciliation summit. Compaore fled to Ivory Coast amid an uprising in 2014. In April 2022, he was sentenced to life imprisonment for complicity in Thomas Sankara, his predecessor’s murder in 1987. Compaore's return was met with celebrations and indignation where several Burkinabes gathered at the airport to welcome him. On the other hand, a group of lawyers called for an arrest warrant against Compaore. 

Sudan: Military to make way for the civilian government, says Gen Burhan
On 4 July, military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said the military would not involve itself in any national talks and would pave the way for a civilian government. Burhan said political parties and revolutionary groups should lead the installation of civilian rule. Burhan announced that the current Sovereign Council, consisting of military and civilian leaders, will be dissolved once an executive government is formed. Instead, a Supreme Council of armed forces will be installed. The development comes after thousands of Sudanese held protests across the country; as of 1 July, nine protesters had lost their lives. However, the protesters refused to believe Burhan’s announcement.0

Mali: ECOWAS lifts economic sanctions
On 3 July, the heads of state of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced an immediate lifting of the economic and financial sanctions on Mali. The decision came after Mali released an election timetable to hold presidential elections in February 2023, against the initial plan to conduct the polls in 2026. The presidential elections will be preceded by a referendum on a revised constitution in June 2023, followed by local and legislative elections in October and November 2023. However, sanctions on individuals will remain in place.

Europe and The Americas This Week 
France: President Macron reshuffled his cabinet after June’s election loss
On 4 July, President Emmanuel Macron of France reshuffled his cabinet following the loss of getting a majority in last month's elections. He retained a few prominent ministers while changing the rest. Ministers for defence, finance, and foreign affairs are the same, while the portfolios of the rest were shuffled. Ministers who lost their seats in June's election have been replaced by people selected by Macron so that they can rebalance his alliance after the loss. The reshuffling came into fruition because of French political tradition that the ministers who lost their seats should resign from the cabinet. The significant change was the removal of the solidarity minister Damien Abad due to him facing rape charges which he denied. 

Italy: Government declares a state of emergency after the north faces severe drought
On 4 July, Italy declared a state of emergency for the region around the Po river. The country is facing severe drought in the area surrounding the river Po, which holds roughly a third of the country's agricultural production. This might lead to enforcing water rationing for homes and businesses. Many waterways in North Italy have dried up, and the flow is weaker, leading to seawater seeping inland, ruining the crops. The regions that fell under the state of emergency were Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto. To overcome the water shortages, funds of EUR 36.5 million were designated for these regions. The state of emergency took care of people's assistance and relief. Further measures could be taken to prevent the same from happening in the future in central Italy. Prime minister Mario Draghi is contemplating appointing a commissioner to take care of the drought response. 

Estonia: PM Kallas steps down among efforts to put together a new coalition
On 7 July, Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s first female Prime Minister, submitted her resignation to the President. The resignation comes amid a month-long effort to put together a new coalition government after Kallas lost the support of her former junior partner, losing the parliamentary majority with it. The new cabinet is expected to include three parties, and once that is done, the President will approve her leadership again. Kallas stated that she submitted the resignation independently to avoid “noise and discontent.” Her announcement came after the Reform party reached a power-sharing agreement with two smaller parties, the Social Democrats and Isamaa.

United Nations: Agencies warn of hunger catastrophe and food crisis
On 06 July, the 2022 edition of the U.N. food security and nutrition report was released. UN agencies like Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP) and World Health Organisation (WHO) said that nearly 10% of the world's population were affected by hunger in 2021. However, more concerning was the report’s forecast for 2022, where the food crisis is bound to be exacerbated due to the Ukraine war. WFP executive director David Beasley said: “The result will be global destabilization, starvation, and mass migration on an unprecedented scale. We have to act today to avert this looming catastrophe.”

Morocco and the EU: Governments release joint statement on border control
On 09 July, the EU and Morocco issued a joint statement on anti-trafficking efforts. The agreement comes after thousands of migrants crossing from Morocco to Spain's Melilla rushed to the border, where 23 died in the chaos. Spain's interior minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, Morocco's interior minister Abdelouafi Laftit and the EU commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson, met in Rabat to discuss the issue. According to the statement, the new agreement will include border management support and strengthening police cooperation. Cooperation between Moroccan and EU agencies working with the issues will also be strengthened.

Ukraine: Fall of Luhansk region
On 3 July, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu reported that the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) had entirely established control over the city of Lysychansk. Ukraine’s general staff after the withdrawal of troops from Lysychansk. On 4 July, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin declared victory in Luhansk: “The units that took part in active combat operations and achieved success and victories in the Lugansk direction, of course, should rest and build up their combat capabilities."

The US: Government implements ban on chip production to prevent China’s domination
On 6 July, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian criticised US efforts to prevent ASML Holding and Nikon from supplying the country with significant chipmaking technology and called it "technological terrorism." To block China's plans to overtake the rest of the world in chip production, Washington has proposed imposing additional limitations on ASML that would go beyond the current ban on selling the most cutting-edge systems to China. The range and type of chipmaking equipment currently prohibited from entering China will be significantly expanded if the Netherlands agrees, potentially dealing a devastating blow to Chinese chipmakers like Semiconductor Manufacturing International and Hua Hong Semiconductor. 

Space: CAPSTONE communications issues and restoration
On 6 July, NASA and Advanced Space revealed that the CAPSTONE had resumed its communications and was in good condition to perform the correction manoeuvre on 7 July. The spacecraft lost contact with the ground stations for about 11 hours after it was deployed on 4 July. After troubleshooting the system, the controllers received a signal from the spacecraft, and the reason for the malfunction is said to be under investigation. CAPSTONE is a lunar cubist who plans to demonstrate the lunar halo orbit used for the later Artemis missions. Funded by NASA, it is operated by Advanced Space, a Colorado-based startup. CAPSTONE is flying a low-energy trajectory that will take it more than 1.2 million kilometres from Earth, eventually going into a near-rectilinear halo orbit around the moon in November.

About the Authors
Akriti Sharma, Harini Madhusudan, Rashmi Ramesh and Ankit Singh are PhD Scholars in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Avishka Ashok, Abigail Miriam Fernandes, Apoorva Sudhakar, Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee are Research Associates at NIAS. Arshiya Banu is a research intern at NIAS. 


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US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1669

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

On Memory, Justice, Diplomacy, Strategy, and Narratives
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
April 2025 | CWA # 1658

GP Team

April 2025 | CWA # 1657

Abhishiktha S Kumar

Who wants the King to return and who opposes it?
April 2025 | CWA # 1655

IPRI Team

April 2025 | CWA # 1642

Esther Gamako Zugwai

March 2025 | CWA # 1641

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

March 2025 | CWA # 1639

Anu Maria Joseph

March 2025 | CWA # 1634

Nuha Aamina

March 2025 | CWA # 1622

GP Team

March 2025 | CWA # 1621

Vaneeta

March 2025 | CWA # 1613

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

March 2025 | CWA # 1609

IPRI Team

January 2025 | CWA # 1594

Ayan Datta

February 2025 | CWA # 1592

South Asia Brief Team

February 2025 | CWA # 1591

GP Team

February 2025 | CWA # 1590

IPRI Team

December 2024 | CWA # 1579

Sayeka Ghosh

January 2025 | CWA # 1573

Vaneeta

January 2025 | CWA # 1570

Vaneeta

January 2025 | CWA # 1565

GP Team

January 2025 | CWA # 1563

IPRI Team

January 2025 | CWA # 1562

Ayan Datta

December 2024 | CWA # 1555

Nupur Priya

November 2024 | CWA # 1544

Ayan Datta

November 2024 | CWA # 1537

Rohini Reenum

October 2024 | CWA # 1522

Advik S Mohan

October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

October 2024 | CWA # 1479

GP Team

September 2024 | CWA # 1476

Advik S Mohan

September 2024 | CWA # 1472

IPRI Team

August 2024 | CWA # 1465

IPRI Team

August 2024 | CWA # 1458

Samruddhi Pathak

August 2024 | CWA # 1457

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2024 | CWA # 1448

IPRI Team

August 2024 | CWA # 1446

IPRI Team

August 2024 | CWA # 1445

Anu Maria Joseph

August 2024 | CWA # 1444

Ayan Datta

August 2024 | CWA # 1442

Vetriselvi Baskaran

August 2024 | CWA # 1437

Prajwal T V

August 2024 | CWA # 1427

Ken B Varghese

July 2024 | CWA # 1416

GP Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

July 2024 | CWA # 1404

Vetriselvi Baskaran

July 2024 | CWA # 1392

Ayan Datta

June 2024 | CWA # 1377

GP Team

June 2024 | CWA # 1368

Ayan Datta & Sayeka Ghosh

June 2024 | CWA # 1355

GP Team

June 2024 | CWA # 1349

Padmashree Anandhan

June 2024 | CWA # 1339

LS Hareesh

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

May 2024 | CWA # 1330

Akhil Ajith

May 2024 | CWA # 1321

Akhil Ajith

May 2024 | CWA # 1320

Femy Francis

May 2024 | CWA # 1318

Akhil Ajith

May 2024 | CWA # 1311

Akhil Ajith

May 2024 | CWA # 1310

Dhriti Mukherjee

May 2024 | CWA # 1308

GP Team

May 2024 | CWA # 1307

IPRI Team

April 2024 | CWA # 1286

Karthik Manoharan

April 2024 | CWA # 1282

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

April 2024 | CWA # 1273

GP Team

April 2024 | CWA # 1265

Devi Chandana M

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

March 2024 | CWA # 1243

GP Team

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
January 2024 | CWA # 1211

Bibhu Prasad Routray

January 2024 | CWA # 1199

GP Team

November 2023 | CWA # 1152

GP Team

November 2023 | CWA # 1150

NIAS Africa Team

November 2023 | CWA # 1149

Sneha Surendran

November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

November 2023 | CWA # 1146

IPRI Team

November 2023 | CWA # 1142

GP Team

November 2023 | CWA # 1140

GP Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1114

Prerana P

June 2023 | CWA # 1113

CR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1090

Yogeswari S

October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

September 2023 | CWA # 1076

IPRI Team

September 2023 | CWA # 1071

Dhriti Mukherjee

August 2023 | CWA # 1070

Ankit Singh

September 2023 | CWA # 1067

PR Team

September 2023 | CWA # 1062

Feben Itty

September 2023 | CWA # 1061

Genesy B

September 2023 | CWA # 1060

Sreeja JS

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1045

NIAS Africa Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1043

Sneha Surendran

August 2023 | CWA # 1042

Nithyashree RB

August 2023 | CWA # 1038

Anu Maria Joseph

August 2023 | CWA # 1036

NIAS Africa Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1024

NIAS Africa Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1022

Ankita Dutta

July 2023 | CWA # 1019

Sneha Surendran

July 2023 | CWA # 1016

Medini Hegde

July 2023 | CWA # 1015

Ramya Balasubramanian

July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1008

IPRI Team

June 2023 | CWA # 985

GP Team

June 2023 | CWA # 977

NIAS Africa Team

June 2023 | CWA # 976

Jerry Franklin

June 2023 | CWA # 974

Akshaya S

June 2023 | CWA # 968

Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB

May 2023 | CWA # 955

Amit Gupta

May 2023 | CWA # 953

GP Team

May 2023 | CWA # 952

Rishika Yadav

April 2023 | CWA # 943

NIAS Africa Team

April 2023 | CWA # 935

GP Team

March 2023 | CWA # 931

Himani Pant

March 2023 | CWA # 929

IPRI Team

March 2023 | CWA # 927

Indrani Talukdar

January 2023 | CWA # 922

Bhoomika Sesharaj

January 2023 | CWA # 921

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

March 2023 | CWA # 919

NIAS Africa Team

January 2023 | CWA # 901

Riya Itisha Ekka

January 2023 | CWA # 900

Apoorva Sudhakar

January 2023 | CWA # 899

Sayani Rana

January 2023 | CWA # 892

IPRI Team

January 2023 | CWA # 891

NIAS Africa Team

December 2022 | CWA # 886

Sethuraman Nadarajan

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 848

Vignesh Ram

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
November 2022 | CWA # 836

Padmashree Anandhan

November 2022 | CWA # 833

Rishma Banerjee

November 2022 | CWA # 814

IPRI Team

October 2022 | CWA # 809

Padmashree Anandhan

October 2022 | CWA # 808

Devjyoti Saha

October 2022 | CWA # 807

Dr Beena

October 2022 | CWA # 794

GP Team

September 2022 | CWA # 786

GP Team

July 2022 | CWA # 769

NIAS Africa Team

July 2022 | CWA # 762

Padmashree Anandhan

July 2022 | CWA # 760

GP Team

July 2022 | CWA # 759

IPRI Team

July 2022 | CWA # 757

IPRI Team

July 2022 | CWA # 756

NIAS Africa Team

June 2022 | CWA # 751

NIAS Africa Team

June 2022 | CWA # 743

NIAS Africa Team

April 2022 | CWA # 724

IPRI Team

April 2022 | CWA # 723

STIR Team

April 2022 | CWA # 720

GP Team

April 2022 | CWA # 719

IPRI Team

March 2022 | CWA # 707

GP Team

March 2022 | CWA # 706

IPRI Team

March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
March 2022 | CWA # 703

IPRI Team

March 2022 | CWA # 701

GP Team

March 2022 | CWA # 697

Avishka Ashok

March 2022 | CWA # 696

Nireekshan Bollimpalli 

March 2022 | CWA # 695

IPRI Team

March 2022 | CWA # 693

PR Team

March 2022 | CWA # 692

GP Team

March 2022 | CWA # 691

IPRI Team

February 2022 | CWA # 689

GP Team

February 2022 | CWA # 688

Padmashree Anandhan

February 2022 | CWA # 685

IPRI Team

February 2022 | CWA # 683
February 2022 | CWA # 682

IPRI Team

February 2022 | CWA # 679

Porkkodi Ganeshpandian and Angkuran Dey

February 2022 | CWA # 678

Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan 

February 2022 | CWA # 668

Amit Gupta

January 2022 | CWA # 653

STIR Team

January 2022 | CWA # 645

Ankit Singh

January 2022 | CWA # 640

Ankit Singh

January 2022 | CWA # 639

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

January 2022 | CWA # 638

Sneha M

December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
November 2021 | CWA # 613

GP Team

November 2021 | CWA # 610

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

November 2021 | CWA # 602

D. Suba Chandran

October 2021 | CWA # 595

Joeana Cera Matthews 

October 2021 | CWA # 593

Harini Madhusudhan

October 2021 | CWA # 590

Sneha M

October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
October 2021 | CWA # 586

Apoorva Sudhakar

October 2021 | CWA # 584

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

September 2021 | CWA # 560

Apoorva Sudhakar

September 2021 | CWA # 550

Joeana Cera Matthews 

September 2021 | CWA # 547

Lokendra Sharma

August 2021 | CWA # 539

STIR Team

August 2021 | CWA # 533

Dincy Adlakha

August 2021 | CWA # 532

Sarthak Jain

August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
July 2021 | CWA # 512

Mohamad Aseel Ummer

July 2021 | CWA # 503

GP Team

June 2021 | CWA # 498

Gurpreet Singh

May 2021 | CWA # 467

Lokendra Sharma

May 2021 | CWA # 464

GP Team

April 2021 | CWA # 456

GP Team

March 2021 | CWA # 440

IPRI Team

February 2021 | CWA # 436

IPRI Team

February 2021 | CWA # 434

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

February 2021 | CWA # 428

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

February 2021 | CWA # 427

Apoorva Sudhakar

February 2021 | CWA # 424

GP Team

January 2021 | CWA # 415

GP Team

January 2021 | CWA # 411

D Suba Chandran

December 2020 | CWA # 405

Mallika Devi

December 2020 | CWA # 404

Harini Madhusudan

December 2020 | CWA # 403

Kamna Tiwary

December 2020 | CWA # 400

Sourina Bej

November 2020 | CWA # 369

IPRI Team

September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

September 2020 | CWA # 336

Harini Madhusudan

September 2020 | CWA # 335

Sourina Bej

August 2020 | CWA # 320

IPRI Team

June 2020 | CWA # 304

Padmashree A

May 2020 | CWA # 295

GP Team

May 2020 | CWA # 293

Boa Wang

May 2020 | CWA # 288

Adnan Aziz Chowdhury

May 2020 | CWA # 286

Boa Wang

May 2020 | CWA # 283

GP Team

April 2020 | CWA # 277

IPRI Team

April 2020 | CWA # 272

GP Team

April 2020 | CWA # 271

IPRI Team

April 2020 | CWA # 259

GP Team

April 2020 | CWA # 255

GP Team

April 2020 | CWA # 253

IPRI Team

March 2020 | CWA # 250

Rashmi Ramesh

March 2020 | CWA # 240

GP Team

March 2020 | CWA # 239

IPRI Team

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

February 2020 | CWA # 212

GP Team

January 2020 | CWA # 209

Boa Wang

January 2020 | CWA # 208

Vivek Mishra

December 2019 | CWA # 196

Harini Madhusudan

November 2019 | CWA # 179

Rashmi Ramesh

October 2019 | CWA # 178

Sourina Bej

September 2019 | CWA # 164

GP Team

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
September 2019 | CWA # 161

Rashmi Ramesh

July 2019 | CWA # 147

Vivek Mishra

June 2019 | CWA # 134

Sourina Bej

June 2019 | CWA # 133

Harini Madhusudan

June 2019 | CWA # 126

Jerin George

June 2019 | CWA # 124

GP Team

May 2019 | CWA # 117

Sourina Bej

May 2019 | CWA # 114

GP Team

May 2019 | CWA # 113

GP Team

April 2019 | CWA # 111

GP Team

January 2019 | CWA # 80

Abhishrut Singh

January 2019 | CWA # 78

Kriti

January 2019 | CWA # 77

Komal Tiwary

December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
September 2018 | CWA # 58

Aparupa Bhattacherjee

August 2018 | CWA # 52

Oishee Majumdar

July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

July 2018 | CWA # 40

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta

June 2018 | CWA # 21

Harini Madhusudan

May 2018 | CWA # 8

Samreen Wani

May 2018 | CWA # 1

Samreen Wani